Wednesday, 31 July 2013

Doing the Sums on Iskandar

A reader asked me for data on my stand on Iskandar. I've done a lot of extensive research and I pick my markets carefully. You should only buy when there is a shortage of homes, e.g. London, Houston, New York.

I apologize that I don't have the time to put up all the research I've done for copyright reasons. But the gist is this: Iskandar has a population of 1.7m. 4.5 people per household. Divide 1.7m by 4.5 and you need about 377,777 homes. There are 420k houses now with a further 80k to be completed next two years! There is an oversupply of 120k homes!

Even if 50% of the 300k Malaysians bought iskander, you will need about 411k houses and that is an overhang of 90k!

Under such circumstances, even in if prices hold steady, rents will definitely plunge as vacancy rates fall! Remember the perfect storm of 2015/16!!