It is very difficult for stocks to crash when valuations range from almost Global Financial Crisis levels (e.g. Italy, Spain and China) to mid levels (e.g. S&P500, STI, etc). Any correction from now till end of 2012 will probably be no more than 20%.
AUDUSD and AUDSGD has turned up again. I was hoping for AUDUSD to fall to 1.00. For AUDSGD, I expected it to fall to 1.25. Both levels didn't occur before the turn around. AUDUSD turned around at 1.025 and it is now above 1.03. The same happened for AUDSGD. It stopped at around 1.27 and shot up.
Obviously the ECB announcement to bail out Spain and Italy, and China's S$180 billion stimulus has buoyed stock markets.
I do not think however, that the return risk ratio of changing from SGD to AUD is worthwhile because I am expecting a downside risk of 1.17 max. The extra 3 percentage point extra of yield that I get for investing in AUD Hedged bond funds cannot offset the potential 9 percent loss in currency. Why would AUDSGD or AUDUSD fall? There is a risk that the commodity down cycle is not over yet, at least for the next 6 - 9 months. If this be the case, RBA may cut rates two more times, which will of course add downward pressure on the AUD.
I strongly believe in the "Getting Paid While You Wait" investment philosophy. I'll stay invested in the following funds:
1. Schroder Asian Income Fund SGD 6% annual dividends, paid monthly.
2. First State Dividend Advantage SGD 4% annual dividends, paid quarterly.
3. AllianceBernstein Global High Yield SGD H, 6.5% annual dividends, paid monthly.
4. AllianceBernstein American Income Portfolio SGD H, 4.8% annual dividends, paid monthly.
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