Saturday 26 October 2013

Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratios



Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller gives advice on calculating price-earning ratio



Are stocks too expensive now that the Standard & Poor’s 500 index is trading near a record high? Let’s see what the numbers of a Nobel winner have to say.
Economist, author and Yale University professor Robert Shiller speaks at a news conference.  JESSICA HILL/ASSOCIATED PRESS
JESSICA HILL/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Economist, author and Yale University professor Robert Shiller speaks at a news conference.

Robert Shiller is one of three Americans who won the Nobel prize for economics last week. The Yale professor is known for pointing out that stock prices were rising much faster than corporate earnings in his book “Irrational Exuberance,” which came out in March 2000. The dot-com bubble popped that month.
The price-earnings ratio is one of the bedrocks of financial analysis. Investors compute it by dividing a stock’s price by the company’s earnings per share, typically over the last 12 months. A high P/E indicates a stock is more expensive than one with a lower ratio.
Shiller suggests calculating the market’s P/E using the average earnings per share over the past 10 years. This longer view smooths out temporary booms and busts, and his numbers are adjusted for inflation. Shiller calls this a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE.
According to Shiller, the S&P 500 began October with a CAPE of 24. That’s well above its historic average, yet still well below a peak of 44 in December 1999 and a peak of 33 reached before the crash of 1929.
GRAPHIC
View the Graphic

Friday 25 October 2013

Why I Avoid Asian Real Estate and Head To The West...

Below is the US Case-Shiller property index. The US has undergone one of the worst real estate correction in a century. It is down by over 30% and is only just beginning to turn up.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Below is the London House Price Index. If you look at the blue line, which is the "Nationwide Nominal Index", it has broken past 2008's high but still has not reached sustainable levels. I would say that this is a mid-cycle phase and is similar to Singapore in 2010 - 2011. It means that the turning point was in 2010 / 11. But don't forget, the index is skewed by zone 1 properties which has run well ahead of the 2008's peak. Zone 2's level is still at around the "Halifax Nominal" level, i.e. still 15% below 2008's peak. 

Below is another index of London property, but inflation adjusted. It is still well below 2008's high. Let me share with you another fact: London's population grows at 100k per annum. They have about 2.5 people per household. They need net addition of 40k per year. But they managed to complete only 20 - 25k per annum! This is a classic case of chronic shortage because there is simply no en bloc rules.

Now look at Singapore's URA property price index. It has not only hit a new high, we are expecting unprecedented supply from now until 2016! The odds are pointing to the downside.


Iskandar's population is 1.8m. It has around 4.5 people per household. They need roughly 360 - 370k of housing stock. But truth is, they currently have 415k of inventory. They have another 100k of new homes completing in the next 3 years. You can bet your last penny that rental yields will drop below mortgage rates. If population growth is slower than expected, i.e. not 5% per annum, vacancy rate could hit 30%! Iskandar, along with China's third and fourth tier cities, is one of the biggest property bubble around!

Monday 21 October 2013

Investment Methods According to Big Fat Purse

I often see my industry colleagues attempting to forecast stock price movements based on news flows, and fail miserably. I often use basic valuation methods like: Price to Book, Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio, ROE, Dividend Yield to screen for the best value for money stocks. Then I'll use qualitative measures like management ability, potential earnings growth, economic moats and technical analysis to pick the 10 to 15 stocks for my portfolio.

                                           
                                                                                                
BigFatPurse
Invest in Assets or Earnings?
By Alvin Chow

Warren Buffett made to the list of richest men through investing. Many investors are inspired by his success in value investing and believes that Buffett’s strategy is the most superior. The funny thing is that Warren Buffett has never described his strategy in detail except stating a few considerations in his letters to shareholders. Commentators and authors studied Buffett’s investment choices and concoct theories on how Buffett chooses his stocks. The investment concept of earnings growth, intrinsic value and competitive advantage has define the investment culture of our time.
I’ll challenge the concept of earnings-based investing in this article and offer you an alternative way to invest.

A Story on Personal Finance

Ashton is a retiree. He worked hard during his career and accumulated enough wealth to own a $1m house and $1m in stocks. He has no debt or any liability. He has a reasonable standard of living and the dividends from his stock investment are more than enough to pay for his expenses.
Earnest is a very successful lawyer who earns $200k a year. He has found his niche in his practice and no one else could compete with him in this area. He expects his income to grow by 5% per year for the next 10 years. If this is true, his income will grow to $325,778 in the 10th year. He does not have any assets or liabilities.
If you were to put your money in either Ashton or Earnest, who would you choose? Assuming you can invest in them and “own” them for $1m, who will it be?
Ashton is assets-rich but has low or no earnings. Earnest on the other hand, has earnings but no assets. If Ashton and Earnest are companies, Ashton has low Price-to-Book ratio (P/B) while Earnest has a high discount to its intrinsic value.
The so-called Warren Buffett style of investing will choose Earnest because of his earnings prowess. However, remember that it is estimated and projected that Earnest will have his income growing at 5% per year. There can be many possibilities for Earnest not to earn that income. For example, he may meet an accident and unable to work anymore. He may also acquire so much debt that his income cannot cover. The uncertainty can never be eliminated and would you put so much faith in his future as an investor?

The shadow of Warren Buffett

Benjamin Graham has many disciples and Warren Buffett is just one of them. There is another successful but very much less known disciple of Graham – Walter Schloss.
Walter Schloss has averaged about 15.3% returns per annum for 45 years. If you have invested $10k, you will have $6m after 45 years.
Unlike Buffett, Schloss does not invest based on earnings. He invest in companies which are asset-rich with low debts. Essentially, low P/B companies. He has a reason for it and he said,
“Try to buy assets at a discount than to buy earnings. Earnings can change dramatically in a short time. Usually assets change slowly. One has to know how much more about a company if one buys earnings.”
Warren Buffett pays a lot of attention on assessing the management of the company (according to experts on Warren Buffett). He will only invest after doing substantial amount of investigative work and interactions with the management.
On the other hand, Schloss knows that he is not as good as Buffett in evaluating management or a business. Hence, Schloss prefers to invest in assets and he said,
“I’m not very good at judging people. So I found that it was much better to look at the figures rather than people. I didn’t go to many meetings unless they were relatively nearby. I like the idea of company-paid dividends, because I think it makes management a little more aware of stockholders, but we didn’t really talk about it, because we were small. I think if you were big, if you were a Fidelity, you wanted to go out and talk to management. They’d listen to you. I think it’s really easier to use numbers when you’re small.”
Schloss knows his strengths and weaknesses very well and play the investing game to his advantage. He knows his firm is small and he won’t get access to management. Malcolm Gladwell wrote about David and the Goliath, where you should know whether you are a big player or a small player, and play a strategy that applies to your context.  Being a small shareholder, it is much easier to invest in assets than earnings.

The Waiting Game

It is true that earnings is the key driver of stock price. But I will challenge that it is because the entire investment community and the financial industry paid too much attention on earnings that it became the most important driver of stock price. Any factor can be a key driver to stock price as long as majority of the investors focuses on it.
The common worry for investing in companies with discount to their assets but have poor earnings, is that the stock price may never reflect the value of the companies and even if it does, the wait might be very long.
Walter Schloss said that when you buy assets, three things will go in your favor:
  1. Earnings turn around and the stock appreciates significantly
  2. Someone buys control of the company (buyout)
  3. The company begins buying its own stock
Any of these 3 things happen and the stock price will go up. That will be an opportunity to realise the profits. And yes, you have to wait for these 3 things to happen and you will never know when.
However, if you diversify your investment into many asset-rich companies, there is a higher chance that a few of those stocks may rise in value and contribute to the returns in your portfolio. Remember Schloss did this and achieved 15.3% returns per year. Diversification is not necessarily damaging to your returns and Warren Buffett praised Schloss for that,
“Walter has diversified enormously, owning well over 100 stocks currently. He knows how to identify securities that sell at considerably less than their value to a private owner. And that’s all he does. He doesn’t worry about whether it it’s January, he doesn’t worry about whether it’s Monday, he doesn’t worry about whether it’s an election year. He simply says, if a business is worth a dollar and I can buy it for 40 cents, something good may happen to me. And he does it over and over and over again. He owns many more stocks than I do — and is far less interested in the underlying nature of the business; I don’t seem to have very much influence on Walter. That’s one of his strengths; no one has much influence on him.”

Play as David, not as Goliath

We are all small retail investors and we must acknowledge that. We have no influence on companies’ management and they won’t give a damn if we want to speak to them and understand their outlook of their business, or even accede to a tour around their company compound. By the way, I do not think we have the time and interest to do what Buffett does.
If so, play like what a small player should do. Invest in asset-rich companies like Schloss. It is a much easier game geared for the small investors. Of course, buying assets is not just buying low P/B companies. There are more to it but we shall leave it for another day. Do subscribe to our email update and look out for it!


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Sunday 13 October 2013

Stingy Asian Clients Who Refuse To Pay For Good Advisory But Get Stuffed With Hidden Fees Instead!

I recently introduced a friend who is a buyers' agent specialising in London. He acts in the interest of the buyer and hence charges a commission. I believe that he is doing Asian clients a huge favour by educating them about the perils of buying new builds off plan. In the interest of all who read my rant for the first time, I'll repeat my spiel again:

1. New builds in London are often built on brown field sites which are ex council blocks. It will often be situated in a council estate and crime rates could be very high. If your new build is on a converted old warehouse, that's fine and it's a plus. In Singapore, off plan projects are usually found in OCR or out of central regions, like Jurong, Tampines, woodlands. These areas are already over priced vs CCR areas.

2. New build projects are usually more dense than old projects. In London or Manhattan, new projects are often just a hundred units. In Singapore, it could be over a thousand, like D'Leedon. The new projects are often marketed to unsuspecting Asians and up to 70% of the project could be buy to let units. Imagine once you collect the keys and put it out for rent, up to 140 units are available for rent !! When you want to sell it, at any time over 20 similar units are for sale.

3. You don't even know the view you are getting from a glossy brochure! Worse, if you haven't even walked the ground, how do you know what you are actually facing when you look out??

4. The biggest reason you should generally not buy new builds is because of the 20-30% price premium despite all the disadvantages!!

Now this acquaintance of mine boasted that he has the big agents working for him all over the world to look out for good projects and he doesn't need to pay fees. But little does he know that these agents act for the vendor and not the buyer, so they will try to "stuff" him continuously with new projects or inferior one.

A buyers agent helps to look for hidden gems that are under valued. You can lock in a 10-20% gain sometimes just by employing his services. The commission of 2-3% that you pay him is worth it.

Remember, don't be a cheapskate and pay for advice. Often, the free advice are there costliest!!

Thursday 10 October 2013

Hang On Tight To Your Portfolio and Add More Equities. The US Should Sort Itself Out!

There is a 5 - 10% chance that the US government may actually default on its debt on 17 Oct. Meanwhile, the correction of stock markets worldwide has made some markets cheap again. I'm buying into European equities because the MSCI Europe's Cyclically Adjusted PE ratio or "CAPE" is around 13x vs the median of 15x. S&P500's CAPE is around 18 - 20x so it's in the expensive zone. I've sold off my US funds and moving into Europe ETF, Aberdeen European Opportunities for my CPF account and Blackrock European Equities for my cash account.

I'm staggering my purchases in Asia x Japan and Emerging Market equities. Basically, in view of this threat of default, I will buy one tranche now and another tranche after the issue is temporarily resolved.

Even if the US does default in the 5% probability, there is a 4.9% chance that it will quickly make good the coupons a few days after 17 Oct. and a 0.1% chance that it will default permanently. You must know that the US still has its financial fate in its own hands, because ALL its government debt is denominated in USD. Why issue other currency debt when the whole world uses USD as the de facto currency? So it could theoretically print as much money as it wants.

In the longer term, investors may shift focus to German Bunds and Japanese government bonds because they are also AAA rated. Australian government bonds could also gain in attractiveness. Already, the German 10 year bunds is at 1.8%, lower than the equivalent UST's 2.6%.

Why You Must Walk The Ground When You Buy Overseas Properties!

http://www.aetv.com/flipping-vegas/episode-guide/season-2/condo-from-hell-9#9

You should watch the TV series called, "Flipping Vegas". In one episode, Scott bought a condo in a bad neighbourhood for USD15k, thinking that he could just spend 8k in repairs and sell it for 32k. But the problems just mount.

1. Gangs roam the neighbourhood. Safety of tenants is a big issue because the house keeps getting burgled. If you can't rent it out or can't find quality tenants who can pay your rent on time, chances are you'll have problems selling it at a profit!

2. Some landlords actually get shot in UK, US and Malaysia trying to collect their rent from "social tenants" or tenants of lower social strata.

3. Some condos could have major repairs. Roofing could totally be gone and the sinking fund of the condo EMPTY. That's right, the management company has misused the money and the new company is stuck with NOTHING in the coffers. A lawsuit between owners and previous management company could ensue but no resolution could be found for several years. Meanwhile, every owner will need to contribute several thousands to top up the sinking fund.

4. Continued mismanagement by the managing company. This could happen very often, especially in developing countries like Malaysia where the rule of law is weak.

5. Sometimes, the whole condo project could be in such a state of disrepair that it is abandoned. 15k may sound like a steal but at the end it is worth nothing but the "air space".

Before you buy, you should check crime rates around the area. Think of the most dangerous neighbourhood in Singapore, perhaps Geylang, and imagine it 10x worse, with gangs of jobless kids roaming the streets at night looking for people to steal from. You should never rely on glossy brochures to buy a house.

You should walk the area in the day, and at night. A place that is bright and cheery in the day may turn into a scary graveyard at night. Walk the area on a weekday and weekend as well. Traffic may be especially bad and noisy on weekdays but quiet in the weekend.

Tuesday 8 October 2013

How Gentrification in London Can Be Speeded Up

There are large swathes of council estates in East London. Most City workers live in East or Central London when they start, but move to North and West London once they got married and start a family. Unlike Asians, most Britons prefer low density housing estates, with gardens at the back so that their kids can play in a safe environment. In ugly tower blocks, crime tends to be rampant. But Asians have been snapping up new tower blocks, especially in the east.

Buying UK or more specifically London properties is very different from Singapore. Crime rates are much higher in certain boroughs in London, specifically Tower Hamlets (including Canary Wharf), Newham (Stratford and Custom House), Greenwich (Woolwich). It also coincides with a highest proportion of council estate, whose residents often have the lowest income and highest joblessness. In Singapore, perhaps with the exception of Serangoon Road and Geylang, everywhere is safe. London is more similar to KL than to Singapore. A friend of mine who swore by East London recently had a neighbour who's apartment was burgled. She's now considering to shift to London Bridge.

It is easier to gentrify Singapore than certain parts of London. Singapore can quickly gentrify certain areas by doing the following:

1. A high GDP growth rate and low unemployment rate meant that even if the residents of say Balestier remain, their incomes will grow and nicer shops / restaurants will be set up.

2. Raising plot ratios or releasing vacant land to build higher intensity developments at higher prices, thereby attracting higher income occupants. In this case, residents of en bloc properties may be displaced.

3. Improvement in infrastructure such as MRT station, or business will increase rental demand in the vicinity. This will attract investors which in turn drives up property prices.

In the UK, GDP growth is much slower than Singapore's 4 - 5% annual rate. Unemployment rate is also much higher. There are many other significant challenges, such as:

1. Influx of refugees / homeless people from the EU adds strain to the housing needs. They are given priority to council flats. They often displace the incumbent population and cause "reverse gentrification". In my first visit to Woolwich 4 years ago, the residents were mainly Eastern Europeans and some Africans. In my last visit, it seems that 80% of the residents are from African countries who spoke no English. The immigration policy needs to be tightened and the right type of people let in.

2. With large council estates especially in the east, slow economic growth and high unemployment rates, a borough cannot easily gentrify. I am aware that certain council blocks are either being bought by the tenants, and some blocks are demolished once the leases expire, to make way for private blocks. But these are few and far in between. Displacing large populations of socially deprived people to another area is not a long term solution as it merely shifts the problem to another area.

3. The quality of inner city schools need to improve. Because to gentrify an area, the next generation needs to have good employable skills so that incomes can be raised.

4. Social benefit payouts need to be reduced. The culture of entitlement needs to be quashed. Income and corporate taxes should be reduced to attract more investments and retain talent.

UK's problems are similar to much of socialist Eurozone, a culture of entitlement, high unemployment, high taxes, too much minority rights. It needs to find the right balance between economic growth and social welfare so that the nation can reinvent itself.

Sunday 6 October 2013

I Am Flamini, "Do That Again And I'll Blind You"

I like all sorts of positions in a soccer team. The position that intrigues me the most is that of a defensive midfielder; the "scruffer" who disrupts opponents when they have possession. Some call this type of player "dog shit", because you don't see the dogs but the shit is littering the streets all over.

Players like Brazil's Carlos Dunga, France's Patrick Vieira, and now Matthieu Flamini are one of my favorites. They hardly make fancy, defensive splitting passes, nor do they deliver 30 meter passes to strikers who then score. They keep they passes short, and their strong traits are that they don't lose possession easily, and are often instrumental in getting the ball back from opponents.

The defensive midfielder is often the brainiest. He organizes the central defenders behind, shouts at his team mates to do their defensive duties, and verbally threatens opponents who try to injure team mates.

I'm not sure if I possess all the qualities of a defensive midfielder but I certainly aspire to be an orchestrator of things.

Anyway, here's an excerpt of the article.


"Of course, they weren't the only players he got vocal with on the pitch. When Marc Wilson had the temerity to tackle Jack Wilshere, Flamini attempted an already infamous -- and rather distinctive -- line in intimidation: "Do that again and I'll blind you." 

http://espnfc.com/blog/_/name/espnfcunited/id/9878?cc=4716