Saturday 7 July 2018

Trend is Down But Rebound Coming

Several news that happened. In Singapore, the government implemented new cooling measures.

Generally, they increased the stamp duty by 5% across the board except for first time home buyers. For second homes, it has risen to over 10%. For foreigners, 25%! For residential properties held under companies, around 25%.

LTV also dropped by 5% even for first time home buyers. It is 75% for loans with tenors over 30 years. For companies, it is as Low as 20%.

You can’t make money betting against the government. David Tepper, the famous hedge fund manager, made a lot of money investing in the direction of the government. E.g. in 2009, he bought banks, casinos etc, corporate bonds.

The government wants people to deleverage, discourage investors from tinkering with residential properties. The message is, “if u wish to invest, buy stocks, bonds, or commercial properties.”

For stocks, I see a new Low across the board, but there is a huge rebound now. I don’t know if the trend has turned bullish but I’m still net short.