Monday 9 March 2015

How to Weather the Next Crisis


Money printing has caused pockets of bubbles everywhere. This is not the first time that governments have printed money. It happened in the 18th century, in Japan, and now.. It often results in more money chasing after the same goods. It merely causes prices of assets to rise.

The end result is almost always the same. A few profiteers made away with fortunes, while the rest got burnt. Read the Mississippi bubble.



http://mshistory.k12.ms.us/articles/70/john-law-and-the-mississippi-bubble-1718-1720



The only way to ensure that you do not get burnt is to either hold lots of cash, or gear up less. I intend to hold lots of cash, so that I can withstand void periods for my properties. Also, I have been buying extremely affordable properties which are priced below the city median, also with high rental yields.

Demographics may change in future though. Here's an article on this.

OUR CHANGING LIFESTYLES HOLD THE KEY TO SUCCESSFUL PROPERTY INVESTING

This may seem obvious, but I have to start with it…
property prices
In order to create long-term wealth from property it will be important to know the type of property that will be in continuous strong demand from both owner occupiers and tenants in the future.
Understanding the needs of your market is fundamental to success when it comes to securing properties that will attract above average capital growth in the years ahead, and one of the keys to this is to study demographics – that is the number and composition of our population and how we choose to live in our society.
How we live is changing
Interestingly, Australian demographics are undergoing some radical changes at present.Australia people
With housing affordability becoming an increasing issue for many first home buyers and our lifestyle becoming a lot more hectic, we are seeing an increase in the popularity of medium density apartment living.
This is far from the way older generations chose to live, with many of them having opted for a detached house on a large suburban block of land.
The fact is, the property investor of the future will be catering for a whole new breed of tenant and buyer.
Look what Gen Y are doing.
Gen Y is on the move, as many from this age group start to think about leaving the family home and starting their own life independent of mum and dad.
Happy Young Couple Moving HouseIn 2010, around 150,000 new households were created in Australia and approximately 65,000 of these comprised Gen Y singles, groups and couples.
Interestingly the majority of this younger demographic will be destined to live as tenants for quite some time, stuck on the rental roundabout due to ever increasing house prices and the cost of living, interest rate uncertainty and of course, annually rising rents.
As such, many choose to live in shared accommodation and multi-income households in order to reside in the locations they favour, but could never be able to afford as a home buyer.
These include inner ring suburbs close to our major CBD’s where employment opportunities and a fast paced lifestyle with plenty of recreation and entertainment facilities are the primary attractions.
With the number of Gen Y’s looking for accommodation continuing to rise, rental demand for near city and inner suburban units and apartments will grow significantly in the coming years.
Apartments make great investments
And our old friend the supply and demand equation will ensure that rents for these types of properties keep rising, as will their values, as higher yields will entice investors back into the market.
apartment
Today medium density properties – apartments and townhouses – make great investments and in general appreciate in value equally, if not more, than houses in our capital cities.
This is of course in part due to affordability, as units offer a much more affordable alternative option than houses.
But it’s about much more than affordability.
Significant changes in our population profile and lifestyle priorities are creating a strong demand for apartment living.
Today, our lifestyles are vastly different to those of our parents.
We’re working longer, we’re increasingly time poor and we’re starting families much later in life.
This means proximity to work, transport, entertainment, cafes, shops and beaches is becoming more important than owning a piece of land.apartment house free 123rf photo
In Australia’s capital cities, apartments are continuing to improve in design and size and are generally closer to the CBD than affordable houses.
Of course, there is still demand for houses with a front and back yard, particularly from families with more than one child, yet there is definitely a shift towards apartment living.
It should be fairly obvious that more single households, smaller families and the impact of the baby boomers downsizing will continue this trend in the long-term.
People are getting married later in life and apartments suit their busy lifestyles; and when a baby comes along, they will often stay in their apartment or buy a bigger one in the same location.
What about the Baby Boomers
And don’t forget as baby boomers move into retirement they will also significantly increase the demand for townhouse and apartment living.
Low maintenance, secure “lock and leave” living is a priority for these buyers.
1 Day Training 2015
According to RP Data capital city units and apartments only accounted for 25% of all home sales 15 years ago.
Today though, medium and high-density accommodation makes up around 35% of all home sales.
Now that’s an interesting trend, isn’t it?
In our two most densely populated capital cities, Sydney and the proportion of unit sales is significantly larger.
So if you’re looking for a great investment property you should seriously consider well-positioned, established apartments in smaller boutique blocks with value add potential through renovations.
Look for a property with a “twist” – something special or an element of scarcity.
Then hold it as a long-term investment and reap the rewards.

Sunday 8 March 2015

Last Run for Equities

2014 and 2015 are fantastic years for my financial assets portfolio. In terms of unit trusts, I'm up around 10% since the start of 2014. YTD, I'm up 3%. I've recently done a fair bit of rebalancing because several bearish indicators turned up:

1. Europe appears cheap on a CAPE basis. But it does not under my model. Nevertheless I've given it an exception and entered into the trade. I didn't want to miss out like I did for Japanese equities. The EU is the second biggest economic bloc and it may take a year to revive the economy. This means we should see the EU recovering by end 2015 early 2016.

2. I've reduced my US equities drastically, as well as global equities fund. Valuations do not appear cheap, in fact they are in bubble territory. The US economy is recovering nicely but stocks appear extremely expensive.

3. I've moved some funds out of Chinese equities into Emerging Markets. EM appears to be the last bastion that hasn't moved. Here's my take: if the US' wages recover, we should see inflation creeping back. Rate hikes may start in 3Q or 4Q15. More importantly, it may drive up commodity prices, especially with China easing and the US picking up.

4. Russian equities, Mining and Energy sectors, Korea, Tech sector, Africa appear cheap as well. I haven't gone into them nor do I have time to analyse them carefully other than to buy their ETFs / funds. I believe that resource exporting nations will be the last to recover. There after, somewhere in late 2016 / 2017, we should see another global recession. At best, the global stock rally will last until late 2015 / 2016... That's a long time but you need to be nimble or to maintain an asset allocation that is fairly balanced.

5. High yields will come under more pressure from 2016 onwards. It will get increasingly worse until 2018 due to the increasing amount of debt maturing between 2016 to 2018.



Which Regions And Sectors Are International Gurus Buying?

March 06, 2015
Vera Yuan

Vera Yuan

100 followers
Warren Buffett said in an interview published on 2/25/2015 in the newspaper Handelsblatt that his holding company Berkshire Hathaway is definitely interested in companies in Germany. “Germany is a terrific market, lots of people, lots of buying power, productive, it’s got a legal system we feel very good with, it’s got a regulatory system we feel very good with, it’s got people we feel very good with - and customers,” Buffett said.
George Soros, one of history’s most successful financiers, has been selling US holdings to buy European stocks. It is said that he has moved about $2 billion into companies in Asia and Europe, according to a person familiar with the strategy.
Robert Shiller, who popularized the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (commonly known as Shiller P/E), is also thinking about exiting US stocks and getting into Europe. He said in a television appearance on 2/18/2015 “I'm thinking of getting out of the United States somewhat. Europe is so much cheaper.” Specifically, Shiller has already purchased stock indices in Spain and Italy.
Leon Cooperman wrote in an investor letter in January this year remained bullish on the U.S., while predicting bigger gains elsewhere. He said “We expect the European and Japanese equity markets to outperform the U.S. in the coming year.”
The US stock market was up more than 30% in 2013, the best year since the go-go years of the 1990s. 2014 was another strong year for the market. The S&P 500 index was up more than 13%. Since the market recovery in 2009, the stock market has been up for 6 consecutive years. The US stock market appears to be really high. Maybe it is the time to find some real bargains in the international markets. Now let’s look at GuruFocus’ top international gurus to see which regions and sectors these gurus hold the most in recent quarter.
Top Regions




Note: the percentage numbers in these charts may not be added to 100% since we rule out the cash and fixed income assets. Only common and preferred shares are considered in this article.
From the above charts, we are confident to say Europe, Asia, and UK/Ireland are the top regions those international gurus holds their positions. Please be aware that we do not consider USA in this article.
Portfolio Name
Top Regions
Europe
UK/Ireland
Asia
Europe
Asia
UK/Ireland
Asia
Europe
UK/Ireland
Europe
Asia
UK/Ireland
Asia
Europe
UK/Ireland
Europe
Asia
UK/Ireland
Europe
UK/Ireland
Asia
Europe
UK/Ireland
Asia
Europe
Asia
UK/Ireland
UK/Ireland
Europe
Asia
Europe
UK/Ireland
Asia
Europe
UK/Ireland
Asia
Among the 12 international gurus, 9 funds have their largest holdings in Europe, 2 funds have their top holdings in Asia, and one in UK/Ireland. 3 funds have their second largest holdings in Europe, 4 funds in Asia, and 5 in UK/Ireland. Asia and UK/Ireland divide the third largest holding regions.
Top Sectors




The above charts are the sector allocations of GuruFocus’ top international gurus. The data is from each guru’s recent factsheet.
Portfolio Name
Top Sector (abouve 10%)
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
Industrials
  
Industrials
Information Technology
Financials
Consumer Staples
 
Consumer Discretionary
    
Information Technology
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
  
Information Technology
Industrials
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Financials
Financials
Industrials
Consumer Discretionary
Materials
Health Care
Financials
Consumer Staples
Consumer Discretionary
  
Financials
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Information Technology
Health Care
Consumer Staples
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
  
Consumer Staples
Information Technology
Consumer Discretionary
  
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
Industrials
  
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
Industrials
  
Those are the top sectors (more than 10% of their holding values) these international gurus hold. Most focus on consumer discretionary, financials, consumer staples, and information technology sectors.

Thursday 5 March 2015

My FX Trading is Up 36% in 15 Months, Up 21% YTD!

I've never been an FX person. I initially started trading in 2011, luckily with a practice account, following a so-called guru's methods and I lost 20% within 1 year. In 2013 my practice account stabilised and I got zero returns. I finally formulate a model and put certain rules in place. I achieved 15% in 2014. YTD, I achieved 21%. With real money, I'm up 21% in 15 months.

If this continues for 3 more years, and I can continue to achieve around 30 - 40% returns IRR, FX trading will become my next asset class next to property which I will diversify my funds into.

My biggest position was the short EURUSD position. Absolute humongous return.


Sunday 1 March 2015

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's Annual Letter to Shareholders


I had a brief fling with technical analysis, much to the misguided trust in someone who swore by it. My lesson learned, "never trust a cooking class teacher who has never run a restaurant." Pure technical analysis has many flaws. They are:

1. Sometimes markets trend, sometimes sideways. different indicators work for different situations. If you use trend following indicators in a sideways market, you get whip lashed. If you use sideways indicators for a trending market, you miss out a lot of the gain or you lose a lot.

2. TA cannot tell you how much upside or downside a stock has. As a result you could end up chasing after small trends and trade too much, as a result trading costs wipe out your returns.

3. TA cannot tell you which stock to choose, which relates to point 2. Only fundamental analysis using valuation techniques can highlight the upside and downside risks.

I've instead switched to using simple methods, such as Benjamin Graham's gauge of cheapness, and Warren Buffett's focus on quality of earnings to choose stocks and funds. So far, it's worked a charm. I've identified stocks such as Dutech, HK Clearing & Exchange, and Chicago Bridge & Iron. All of them have since shot up. For funds, I've identified Fidelity America, First State Regional China, First State Bridge, First State Dividend Advantage, which enabled me to achieve about 3% upside year-to-date and around 11% in 14 months.

Anyway, here's my tribute to the great Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.


Buffett Says Next Berkshire CEO Must Fight Arrogance, Decay

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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire five decades ago and transformed it from a struggling textile maker into a sprawling business empire. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said his successor will need to avoid traps that have hindered companies in the past.
The next Berkshire CEO will need “the ability to fight off the ABCs of business decay, which are arrogance, bureaucracy and complacency,” Buffett, 84, wrote in his annual letter to Berkshire shareholders posted online Saturday. “When these corporate cancers metastasize, even the strongest of companies can falter.”
Buffett took over Berkshire in 1965 and transformed the struggling textile maker into the fourth-biggest company in the world. Its operations now span the insurance, transportation, energy, manufacturing and retail industries.
For years, the billionaire has avoided disclosing who might replace him as chief. He again stopped short of identifying the individual, reiterating that the Omaha, Nebraska-based company’s board has the “right person” to succeed him after he dies or steps down, and believes that future CEOs should come from Berkshire’s internal ranks.
“In certain important respects, this person will do a better job than I am doing,” he wrote.
He also affirmed that his son Howard, a Berkshire director since 1993, could be the company’s non-executive chairman once he’s gone. That arrangement will allow for a continuation of Berkshire’s culture and will provide a stopgap should the next CEO need to be replaced, Buffett wrote.

‘All In’

The primary job of his successor will be to allocate capital and to keep outstanding managers running each of its businesses, Buffett wrote. The person will also need to have a good character, which he defined as being “‘all in’ for the company, not for himself.”
Buffett relies on the CEOs of Berkshire’s dozens of operating businesses to handle day-to-day decisions, leaving him time to pursue takeovers and invest in stocks and bonds. The billionaire frequently uses his letter to praise the work of the company’s managers, a group that he calls “all-stars.”
That structure is “the ideal antidote to bureaucracy,” Buffett wrote. “In an operating sense, Berkshire is not a giant company but rather a collection of large companies.”
Some of Buffett’s comments over the years have led investors to guess that potential successors include Ajit Jain, the head of Berkshire’s namesake reinsurer; Greg Abel, who leads the energy-utility business; and Matthew Rose, executive chairman of BNSF railroad.

Munger Letter

In a separate letter discussing Berkshire’s past and future, Vice Chairman Charles Munger specifically praised Jain and Abel. The two managers are proof that Berkshire would continue to thrive if Buffett departed soon, Munger wrote. Neither would leave Berkshire for a competitor and both believe in the company’s unique system, he said.
“Ajit Jain and Greg Abel are proven performers who would probably be under-described as ‘world-class,’” the Berkshire vice chairman wrote. “‘World-leading’ would be the description I would choose. In some important ways, each is a better business executive than Buffett.”

Charlie Munger: These Four Factors Explain Why Berkshire Hathaway Has Done So Well

A combination of "constructive peculiarities" and luck helped turn Berkshire into such a huge success.
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Billionaire Charles Munger
Berkshire Vice-Chairman Charles Munger.
Jonathan Alcorn/Bloomberg
Warren Buffett's latest annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders is out, and because it's the 50th anniversary, the letter offers a little something extra. Both Buffett and his second-in-command Vice-Chairman Charlie Munger have sections about what they think the next 50 years of Berkshire are going to look like.
Munger's section (which starts on page 39) goes into detail about the Buffett method for running a company. He focuses a lot on Berkshire Hathaway's willingness to let the various CEOs of its subsidiaries to operate with autonomy. Munger also describes what he sees as the four factors that allowed Berkshire Hathaway to boom under Buffett.
Munger writes:
Why did Berkshire under Buffett do so well?
Only four large factors occur to me:
(1) The constructive peculiarities of Buffett,
(2) The constructive peculiarities of the Berkshire system,
(3) Good luck, and
(4) The weirdly intense, contagious devotion of some shareholders and other admirers, including some in the press.
I believe all four factors were present and helpful. But the heavy freight was carried by the constructive peculiarities, the weird devotion, and their interactions.
Munger follows that up with an explanation of how the "constructive peculiarities" of Buffett and the Berkshire System created a "virtuous circle" that allowed the company to thrive. The idea, essentially, is that letting great companies and great CEOs thrive independently within Berkshire made more great companies, and CEOs want to join in.
Buffett was, in effect, using the winning method of the famous basketball coach, John Wooden, who won most regularly after he had learned to assign virtually all playing time to his seven best players. That way, opponents always faced his best players, instead of his second best. And, with the extra playing time, the best players improved more than was normal.
And Buffett much out-Woodened Wooden, because in his case the exercise of skill was concentrated in one person, not seven, and his skill improved and improved as he got older and older during 50 years, instead of deteriorating like the skill of a basketball player does.
Moreover, by concentrating so much power and authority in the often-long-serving CEOs of important subsidiaries, Buffett was also creating strong Wooden-type effects there. And such effects enhanced the skills of the CEOs and the achievements of the subsidiaries.
Then, as the Berkshire system bestowed much-desired autonomy on many subsidiaries and their CEOs, and Berkshire became successful and well known, these outcomes attracted both more and better subsidiaries into Berkshire, and better CEOs as well.
And the better subsidiaries and CEOs then required less attention from headquarters, creating what is often called a “virtuous circle.”