Saturday 13 August 2011

Insiders Buying Stock at Highest Rate Since March 09 as S&P 500 Drops

Can insiders be trusted? Will they be right this time?


Insiders Buying Stock at Highest Rate Since March ’09 as S&P 500 Drops

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Enlarge imageInsiders Buying at Highest Rate Since March 2009

Insiders Buying at Highest Rate Since March 2009

Insiders Buying at Highest Rate Since March 2009
Tim Boyle/Bloomberg
The S&P 500 pit on the floor of the CME Group's Chicago Board of Trade.
The S&P 500 pit on the floor of the CME Group's Chicago Board of Trade. Photographer: Tim Boyle/Bloomberg
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- More executives at Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies are buying their stock than any time since the depths of the credit crisis after valuations plunged 25 percent below their five-decade average. Sixty-six insiders at 50 companies bought shares between Aug. 3 and Aug. 9, the most since the five days ended March 9, 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Dominic Chu reports on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)
Enlarge imageInsiders Buying Stocks at Highest Rate Since 2009

Insiders Buying Stocks at Highest Rate Since 2009

Insiders Buying Stocks at Highest Rate Since 2009
Tim Boyle/Bloomberg
Traders work in the Eurodollar pit on the floor of the CME Group's Chicago Board of Trade.

Enlarge imageInsiders Buying at Highest Rate Since March 2009

Insiders Buying at Highest Rate Since March 2009

Insiders Buying at Highest Rate Since March 2009
Jin Lee/Bloomberg
Morgan Stanley chief executive officer James Gorman and two other managers purchased 175,000 shares of the New York-based bank.
Morgan Stanley chief executive officer James Gorman and two other managers purchased 175,000 shares of the New York-based bank. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg
More executives at Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies are buying their stock than any time since the depths of the credit crisis after valuations plunged 25 percent below their five-decade average.
Sixty-six insiders at 50 companies bought shares between Aug. 3 and Aug. 9, the most since the five days ended March 9, 2009, when the benchmark index for U.S. equities reached a 12-year low, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley (MS) Chief Executive Officer James Gorman and two other managers purchased 175,000 shares of the New York-based bank as the shares fell to the lowest level since March 2009, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Almost $3 trillion has been erased from U.S. equity values in the last three weeks as signs the economy is slowing and S&P’s downgrade of the government’s AAA credit rating left the benchmark gauge for U.S. shares within 30 points of a bear market. Some analysts say insider buying is bullish because executives have the best information about their prospects.

“Nobody knows a company better than the people running it,” Shawn Price, who manages $2.4 billion at Navellier & Associates Inc. in Reno, Nevada, said in a telephone interview.“It’s a positive sign that they are committing their personal capital.”

Stocks Drop

CEOs, directors and senior officers bought stock as the S&P 500 fell 18 percent from this year’s high on April 29 on concern about Europe’s debt crisis and the political battle over the U.S. debt ceiling. The index is trading at 12.3 times earnings in the past year, compared with its average since 1954 of 16.4, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Gorman’s purchase of 100,000 shares was his first since joining Morgan Stanley in 2006 and the biggest stock acquisition among the firm’s executives in more than four years, according to Princeton, New Jersey-based InsiderScore.com, which analyzes insider transactions. Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat and Paul J. Taubman, co-head of the firm’s investment bank, also bought stock.

Morgan Stanley fell 19 percent from July 21 through Aug. 4, the day of Gorman’s purchase. It has lost 17 percent since, falling to $16.45 yesterday, the lowest level since January 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

General Motors Co. (GM) CEO Dan Akerson purchased $250,500 in shares of the automaker on Aug. 9, a day before the stock fell 6.3 percent to $23.92, the lowest level since its November initial public offering and down 35 percent for 2011. Akerson bought 10,000 shares for $25.05 each, bringing his total to 103,600, Detroit-based GM said in a regulatory filing.

MEMC Electronic

CEO Ahmad Chatila and five other officers at MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (WFR), which has a price-earnings ratio of 8.4, bought a combined 468,057 shares of the silicon-wafer maker on Aug. 5, when the stock sank to the lowest level since October 2002, regulatory filings showed. Shares of the St. Peters, Missouri-based company rallied 19 percent to $5.93 on Aug. 9, when the transactions were disclosed.

Robert Hugin, the chairman and CEO of Summit, New Jersey-based Celgene Corp. (CELG), bought shares of the maker of blood-cancer drugs for the first time since at least 2003, according to data compiled by InsiderScore. Hugin acquired 10,000 shares on Aug. 8, when the stock fell to a five-month low, while Chief Financial Officer Jackie Fouse bought shares three times this month, according to SEC filings. The stock climbed 4.2 percent on Aug. 9 and closed at $51.85 yesterday, down 12 percent for the year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Insiders Buying

A total of 919 insiders bought stock among all publicly listed U.S. companies between Aug. 1 and yesterday, data compiled by InsiderScore show. That compares with a monthly average of 1,065 transactions in data going back to January 2004. About 1,390 insiders bought during the first 10 days of March 2009, InsiderScore data show.

Executives at 14 S&P 500 companies sold shares between Aug. 3 and Aug. 9, according to Bloomberg data, bringing the ratio of those with buyers and those with sellers to 7 to 2. Since the beginning of 2004, there have been on average 3.08 companies in the S&P 500 with sellers for every company with buyers, according to InsiderScore.

“It’s a fire sale and the insiders are stepping up to buy at these prices,” Daniel Genter, who oversees about $3.7 billion as president of Los Angeles-based RNC Genter Capital Management, said in a telephone interview. “The insiders are saying that the lower valuation is unreasonable because they believe the earnings power of their companies is likely to go up.”

Rising Profits

Earnings per share increased 17 percent among the S&P 500 companies that have released quarterly results since July 11, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About three-quarters of the companies have topped the average analyst profit forecast, the data show. Sales rose 13 percent during that period.

Insider behavior doesn’t always foreshadow stock moves, according to Michael Yoshikami, chief investment strategist at YCMNet Advisors. Selling by S&P 500 executives reached a record in November as the index was in the midst of a 33 percent rally from July 2 to April 29, 2011. They increased sales in August 2009 when the S&P 500 was halfway through an advance in which it doubled, data compiled by Bloomberg and InsiderScore show.

“It’s not a perfect indicator,” Yoshikami, who manages about $1 billion in Walnut Creek, California, said in a telephone interview. “Insiders can be wrong and get carried away by emotion. Just think about all the technology executives who didn’t sell at the highs because they were overly optimistic.”
The end of earnings season leads to an increase in insider transactions because executives are prevented from buying or selling before announcements, according to Ben Silverman, the Seattle-based research director at InsiderScore. Of the companies in the S&P 500, 427 have reported results since July 11, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

U.S. laws require executives and directors to disclose stock purchases or sales within two business days. The data don’t include transactions related to options and so-called 10b5-1 programs, which allow executives to cash out a portion of their holdings when stocks reach predetermined prices.

Big Emerging Stock Outflows May Signal Buy

Here's another angle looking at the stock markets. The historical PE of Emerging Markets is 12x and analysts forecast the forward PE to be 8.9x. That's a very optimistic 20.64% growth in EPS.

If we adjust down to a more manageable 15% growth forecast, 1 year forward PE ratio is likely to hit 10.4x. This is below mid cycle level of 14x over 20 years, but above the 2008 low of 7x. The recent 21% sell down of the MSCI Emerging Markets pushes valuations down from above mid cycle to below the average.

But technicals is a horrible picture. All long term support lines have been smashed at high volumes. It seems that algo traders and trend followers have beaten fundamental investors for the past 2 months.

I tend to lean towards the technical side because all perception of stock valuation is reflected in the price action of the stocks. I'm 60% convinced that the bull is over... This rebound will not surpass 10% of the current sell down.

Big Emerging Stock Outflows May Signal Buy

 
The biggest outflows from emerging-market equity funds since January 2008 may be a signal to buy stocks at the lowest valuations in 2 1/2 years.

Investors pulled $7.7 billion in the week to Aug. 10, the third-largest withdrawal on record and about 1.1 percent of assets under management, according to research firm EPFR Global. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index jumped an average 17 percent in the six months after outflows of this magnitude during the past decade, posting gains on 11 of 12 occasions, data compiled by EPFR Global and Bloomberg show.

The MSCI gauge sank as much as 20 percent from its May 2 high this week on concern the U.S. economy is stalling andEurope’s debt crisis is worsening. The slump sent valuations 30 percent below the 20 year average at 8.9 times analysts’ 12-month profit estimates, data compiled by Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley show. Fund outflows are a contrarian signal for rallies because they show pessimistic investors have already sold, according to Commerzbank AG’s Michael Ganske.

“When things are selling off and investors are very bearish and panicking then it’s clearly a good time to add positions,” Ganske, head of emerging-markets research at Commerzbank in London, said in a phone interview. “There is clearly a compelling argument to reassess exposure in emerging equities as valuations are very, very cheap.”

The strategy of buying emerging-market stocks after weeks when outflows exceeded 1 percent of assets under management produced average gains of 2.2 percent in one month, 8.5 percent in three months and 28 percent in 12 months, according to data compiled by EPFR Global and Bloomberg.

History Shows Gains

Investors have also been rewarded for buying when the MSCI emerging index fell below 9 times earnings. The last dip to those levels in October 2008 was followed by a 60 percent rally during the next 12 months, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The gauge climbed 44 percent in the year after valuations tumbled that low in August 1998, the month Russia defaulted on $40 billion of debt, the data show.

The MSCI index was little changed today after two days of gains. Reports today showed French economic growth stalled last quarter and euro-region industrial production unexpectedly fell in June.
The 21-country gauge has retreated about 5 percent this week after an unprecedented downgrade of America’s top credit rating by Standard & Poor’s and signs that Italy and Spain may struggle to refinance debt. The MSCI Emerging Markets Energy Index sank 7 percent, the most among 10 industry gauges, as oil prices tumbled.

‘Growth Scare’

A further retreat in commodities may spur more outflows from developing-nation equity funds, according to John-Paul Smith, emerging-market strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London.

“Over the short term it’s most likely a by-product of the global turmoil rather than a change of view on the relative attractions of emerging-market equities,” Smith said. “The real damage is likely to happen further out if, as we expect, investors become more negative about the fundamental prospects of both emerging markets and commodities.”

The MSCI index fell more than 15 percent in a month after fund outflows reached more than one percent of assets in August 2001, while the gauge retreated 6.5 percent when withdrawals exceeded that level in May 2006, data compiled by EPFR and Bloomberg show.

This week’s retreat in emerging-market share prices has produced buying opportunities and slowing growth in the developed world may ease inflation pressures in developing nations, said Ivo Kovachev, an emerging-markets money manager at London-based JO Hambro Capital Management Ltd.
The People’s Bank of China will leave borrowing costs unchanged for the rest of this year, according to eight of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg this week. The Bank of Korea keptinterest rates unchanged for a second month on Aug. 11, whileIndonesia stayed on hold Aug. 9.

“There has been a growth scare in the world,” said Kovachev. “But perhaps a bit perversely, it may help emerging markets because this year they were suffering from overheating and inflation risk.”