Monday 16 December 2013

A Volatile Equity Market in 2014 Beckons

As you can see, the valuations of most markets are not cheap. Only the Chinese and Russian equity indices are cheap. The rest of the ASEAN markets are considered above median. US and Europe is in between.
 
However, the macro picture, e.g. earnings growth, GDP growth, and yield curves are supportive of further growth in 2014. Hence if you factor in the macro / monetary picture, stocks could rise further. With this current correction, China, Mining, Europe, Korea, US and Global stocks have > 30% upside over 2 years. Japanese equities have over 20% returns for the same period.
 
Caveat: if earnings disappoint, we could see a major correction in 2014 given the rich valuations.
 
I believe we could see very choppy equity markets in 2014, much like in 2011. Wear your seat belts!