Saturday, 15 February 2014

Gold may enter a neutral territory.


One way to measure gold is to compare an ounce of gold against the Dow Jones Industrials. The Dow vs Gold ratio is currently not at the highest. But it is above average. I would say that the inflexion point where gold starts to rally is around 16.55 back in Jul 1929, 25 in Jul 1965, 41.61 in Jul 1999. These are the points where stocks are expensive relative to gold. The average point is around 27.8x.

The periods where gold start their bear trend are: Feb 1933, 1.94x, Feb 1980 1.3. The average is around 1.62x. The median is probably around 14.7x. Right now the ratio is around 12.38x.. It is slightly on the expensive side.



Even though there was a rebound from 1180 to 1320 oz recently, the trend has not confirmed.

I'm neutral gold at the moment. Here are the reasons:
Positives for gold:
1. Chinese buying up 41% in Jan 14.
2. At 1180 oz, gold fell around 39% from 1931 back in Sep 2011. This drop is bigger than the last drop in 2008.
3. Inflation is likely to occur in the west from 2015 onwards, as unemployment rate continues to fall.

Negatives for gold:
1. Chart is neutral.
2. ETF selling still ongoing.
3. UST 10 years may rise above 3.5% by end 2014, making gold less attractive.

If your allocation to gold is a mere 10%, you can hold on to it. If you have > 10% exposure, then sell down to 10%. If you have < 10% gold, you can start adding until you hit the magical exposure.

Why I think the mining sector has bottomed! Part 2


After peaking in Dec 2010, the mining index fell by 48%! The Chinese economy slowed. There was oversupply in commodity supply. The Chinese mines were producing at breakneck pace, such that they will be net exporters by 2015 / 16. Coal miners were being phased out as new environmental laws sought to curtail coal fired power plants in China. After years of wastage, lavish spending by miners, the costs have caught up with revenue.

After three years of decline, many smaller mines have closed. Capex shrank. Valuations of mining stocks fell below median levels.

Chart wise, the monthly chart indicates an important inflexion point.

Why I believe the mining sector has finally hit rock bottom

PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 14, 2014
Rio Tinto ups dividend after H2 earnings climb 43%
Underlying profit rises to US$6b from US$4.2b a year ago
BT 20140214 TINTO14 957835
Mr Walsh: Has cut US$2.3 billion in costs after taking over as CEO over a year ago. He also curbed investment following criticism from investors that the world's biggest mining companies had overspent on acquisitions and expansions. - PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
[LONDON] Rio Tinto Group, the world's second-largest mining company, bolstered its dividend after reporting a 43 per cent gain in second-half profit as prices for iron ore advanced and it beat a cost-cutting target.
Underlying profit was US$6 billion in the six months ended Dec 31 from US$4.2 billion a year earlier, London-based Rio said yesterday. That compares with the US$5.1 billion average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. It increased its dividend by 15 per cent to 192 cents a share for the year.
Since his appointment slightly over a year ago, chief executive officer Sam Walsh has cut US$2.3 billion in costs and curbed investment following criticism from investors that the world's biggest mining companies had overspent on acquisitions and expansions. Analysts are now expecting Rio to bolster shareholder returns as cost savings enhance earnings.
"It's a strong signal with regard to capital allocation being sent by Rio with a 15 per cent hike in the dividend," Richard Knights, an analyst at Liberum Capital in London, said yesterday. "Rio has sent a clear message that it is listening to shareholders."
"That's the real proof in the pudding that we are actually delivering greater shareholder value," Mr Walsh, a 64-year-old Australian, said yesterday on a call with reporters referring to the dividend. "It's also a tick in terms of the confidence we have in the business going forward."
Iron ore is the biggest contributor to Rio's results, followed by copper. The price of the raw material climbed 15 per cent in the second half of 2013 as China, the world's biggest buyer, boosted stockpiles to the highest in more than a year. The price has dropped 10 per cent this year.
The outlook for the Chinese economy "remains positive", Mr Walsh said in a presentation yesterday.
Rio is the biggest iron ore exporter after Brazil's Vale SA. Increased supplies will trim prices this year, Mr Walsh said in a December interview. Banks from Goldman Sachs to UBS expect supply expansions led by Australian producers to push the seaborne market into surplus in 2014.
In a bid to placate increasingly vocal shareholders, the world's largest mining companies are reining in spending after a decade-long boom in metal prices petered out. Glencore Xstrata CEO Ivan Glasenberg said a year ago his peers had overinvested, swamping the industry with new mines and production. Rio's Mr Walsh is seeking to cut costs by a further US$1 billion this year.
"The cost-cutting combined with the capex ramp-down put Rio in a position to increase its returns," Deutsche Bank analysts Rob Clifford, Anna Mulholland and Paul Young wrote in a Feb 10 report. The company could return as much as US$3 billion of surplus cash to investors in 2016, Goldman Sachs analysts said in December.
Rio plans to cut capital spending to about US$8 billion in 2015, less than half its outlay in 2012. This year's focus will be on reducing debt, which rose to about US$22 billion at June 30, chief financial officer Chris Lynch said in December. It reduced debt by US$4 billion in the half year to US$18.1 billion.
Underlying profit for the full-year was US$10.2 billion, or 553.1 cents a share, from US$9.3 billion, or 501.3 cents, a year earlier. That compares with the US$9.7 billion average of 23 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Net income was US$3.7 billion after a loss of US$3 billion in 2012. - Bloomberg