6到12个月的时间，可能看到一个陡峭的权益纠正，但我可能是错误的

自2000年以来，我们看到每两到三年的差距就在20-50％之间。

2000  -  2001年9月，50％修正（熊市）。

原因：以CAPE比率记录高股本估值。新兴股市上涨100％，科技泡沫。 9/11恐怖袭击

2002  -  2003年6月，MSCI世界（熊市）的30-40％改正。 SARS，企业渎职。冒牌开始牛市。

2007年11月 -  2009年2月，MSCI世界（熊市）修正约60％。大衰退次级崩溃从美国开始。美国的股票估值并不高于中位数。

2011年5月 -  2012年9月，修正约20％（大修正）。欧元区危机。海啸在日本。全球复苏缓慢

2014年11月 -  2016年8月，大约10％的修正（大修正）。新兴股票和商品受美国利率上涨的影响。

马克吐温说：“历史很少重复，它只是韵律”。

在2018年，我们应该看到至少20％的重大调整。即使中央银行准备重新降息。我们在恢复周期中非常迟。这就是为什么：

1.差不多十年的低利率和量化宽松政策导致了亚洲的债务泡沫。我们看到石油和天然气新加坡天然气行业慢慢陷入违约。中国的高企业债务和违约行为迄今已被政府席卷全地，但持续了多久？

2.发达国家的CAPE或周期性调整后的价格收益率的估值是自1929年刚刚大萧条之前和2000年以来科技泡沫高度的最高水平。

3.全球IPO的涨幅越来越大，表明公司认为估值接近高峰。公司倾向于上市，以退出公开市场。

大量的资金追逐昂贵的资产。我们看到私募股权基金，开发商投标资产的收益率非常低，为3  -  4％。一旦利率上升1％，这些项目立刻就没有意义。

以下是牛市可能持续一段时间的原因：

通货膨胀仍然是良性的。由于自动化，工资并没有快速上升，所以与2005年至07年不同，美国的工资增长率不会比3  -  4％。

在市场上仍然有很多的恐惧。分析师，CNBC和彭博社的谈话负责人正在宣扬公牛的结束。对公牛的结束表示太多的担忧。这必须是最讨厌的公牛。

新兴市场股票，如俄罗斯，土耳其和巴西，仍然远低于估值的中位数。预计它们每年的名义回报率将达到10％至16％之间，相比美国的2％，这相当令人印象深刻。

在这个周期的这一部分，我们做什么？

全球经济放缓（2002,2009-10），买入股票。他们是第一个恢复。买地用于未来发展。购买像建成建筑这样的硬资产，因为收益率高达9-15％。没有竞争对你的出价。购买商品买高收益债券。

全球经济下滑（2003年至04年，2011年至12月），出售一些股票，但并非全部，因为收益开始压缩，购买硬资产。随着地价的上涨，开始将土地发展成为建筑物。 2009年买入的开发商利润率最高。

全球经济复苏（2005年，2013  -  15年），停止购买硬资产，因为它们不够流动，不足以迅速退出。只购买具有重建潜力的物业。开始销售你的项目。保持你的商品。利率已经开始上涨，但持有你的高收益债券。

全球经济升温（2006  -  07年，2016年至18年）。开始出售一些非常低收益的硬资产，例如商店以3  -  4％的上限率。快速出售您的项目，如果不将其出租。出售股票等流动资产。仅投资于ETF，单位信托。任何液体的东西。不要坚持亚洲的非流动性高收益债券。

第一个迹象出现（2007年11月）。迅速卖出股票。你现在应该出售一半的硬资产，希望把所有的项目都卖掉。保持非常流动的债券和平衡的资金。替代品如CTA非常方便。您可以开始缩小股票ETF。开始销售商品。

全球经济放缓开始（2008年6月）。现金，投资级债券，CTA，短期股权。开始在街上寻找血液。机会加倍

6 to 12 Months' Time, May See A Steep Equity Correction, But I May Be Wrong

Since 2000, We see a steep correction every two to three years of between 20 - 50%.

2000 - 2001 Sep, 50% correction (Bear Market).
Cause: Record high equity valuations in terms of CAPE ratio. EM equities rallied 100%, tech bubble. 9/11 terrorist attack.

2002 - 2003 Jun, around 30 - 40% correction of MSCI World (Bear Market). SARS, corporate malfeasance. False start to the bull market.

2007 Nov - 2009 Feb, around 60% correction of MSCI World (Bear Market). Great Recession. Sub Prime meltdown started from the US. Equity valuations in the US were not extremely above median.

2011 May - 2012 Sep, around 20% correction (Big correction). Eurozone crisis. Tsunami in Japan. Slow global recovery.

2014 Nov - 2016 Aug, around 10% correction (big correction). EM equities and commodities hit by rising US interest rates.

"History Seldom Repeats, It Merely Rhymes", so says Mark Twain.

We should see a major correction of at least 20% in 2018. Even with Central Banks ready to go back to rate cutting mode. We are extremely late in the recovery cycle. Here's why:

1. Almost a decade of low rates and quantitative easing have resulted in pockets of debt bubble in Asia. We are seeing oil & gas sector in Singapore slowly going into defaults. High corporate debt and defaults in China has so far been swept under the carpet by the government but for how long?

2. Valuations in terms of CAPE or cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio in the developed world is at the highest since 1929 just before the Great Depression and 2000, the height of the tech bubble.

3. IPOs are at an increasing rate worldwide, indicating that companies feel that valuations are near peak. Companies tend to IPO to exit into public markets.

4. Lots of money chasing after expensive assets. We see private equity funds, developers bidding for assets at very low earnings yields of 3 - 4%. As soon as interest rates rise another 1%, the projects immediately do not make sense.

Here are the reasons why the bull markets may last a while longer:

1. Inflation is still benign. Due to automation, wages are not rising as fast, so we don't see 3 - 4% wage growth in the US, unlike in 2005 - 07.

2. Still a lot of fear in the markets. Analysts, talking heads of CNBC and Bloomberg are touting the end of the bull run. There is far too much worries to signal the end of the bull. This must be the most hated bull run ever.

3. Emerging market equities, such as Russia, Turkey and Brazil are still well below median in valuations. They are projected to produce between 10 and 16% return per annum nominal, which is quite impressive, compared to the US' 2%.

In this part of the cycle, what do we do?

Global economy slowing down (2002, 2009 - 10), buy stocks. They are the first to recover. Buy land for future development. buy hard assets like completed buildings because yields are super high at 9 - 15%. No competition for your bids. Buy commodities. Buy high yield bonds.

Global economy hits trough (2003 - 04, 2011 - 12), sell some stocks but not all, buy hard assets as yields start to compress. Start to develop your land into buildings as land prices rise. Profit margins for developers who bought in 2009 is at the highest.

Global economy recovers (2005, 2013 - 15), stop buying hard assets because they are not liquid enough to exit quickly. Buy only properties with redevelopment potential. Start selling your projects. Keep your commodities. Interest rates have started to rise but hold on to your high yield bonds.

Global economy heats up (2006 - 07, 2016 - 18). Start to sell some hard assets that have very low yields, e.g. shops at 3 - 4% cap rates. Sell your projects quickly, if not rent them out. Sell some liquid assets like stocks. Invest only in ETFs, unit trusts. Anything that's liquid. Do not hold on to illiquid high yield bonds in Asia.

First signs of trouble emerges (2007 Nov). Sell of equities quickly. You should have sold half your hard assets and hopeful sold all your projects by now. Keep very liquid with bond and balanced funds. Alternatives like CTA come in very handy. You may start to short equity ETFs. Start selling commodities.

Global slowdown starts (2008 Jun). Cash, investment grade bonds, CTAs, short equity. Start looking for blood on the streets. Opportunities galore.