Monday 12 July 2010

Slowdown in GDP Growth, Not Double Dip. But Equity Returns Likely to be Low


Here's another report substantiating why a double dip is unlikely. However, even if we do avoid a double dip, stock returns are not going to be like in 2009.

Spain 1 Holland 0: The Better Team Won

Holland's strategy was to disrupt Spain's rythm by fouling them. Like Germany, they defended with 6 to 7 men most of the time, hoping to hit Spain on the counter. They almost succeeded several times, catching Puyol's lack of space. The Spaniards played a patient game, passing in small triangles, hoping to unlock the Dutch's packed defence.

In the end, it took a red card to release some space for Spain. The red was deserved and a long time coming. The Dutch played with violence throughout this tournament. Had they won the World Cup, a negative signal would have been sent to young fans that soccer is about negativity. Neutrals love to watch Spain because they can string together 20 - 30 passes before scoring.

This World Cup brought to light several trends:

1. Obviously the pressure on FIFA to introduce video technology has increased with several high profile errors.

2. The proliferation of 4-2-3-1 formation, with the lone striker supported by 3 attacking midfielders, 2 holding midfielders protecting 4 defenders. As a result the number of goals scored in this world cup is the lowest since 1994. This formation requires 3 very fit midfielders rushing up to support the lone striker. It requires the striker to hold the ball while waiting for support. As the attacking mid had defensive duties too, the quality of attack is compromised.

3. The technique has improved tremendously, especially for European teams. Germany, which previously played drab, cautious soccer, became one of the most skilful team. The South American teams like traditionally power-houses Brazil and Argentina continued to show superiority in technique, but were let down by indiscipline at the back. Asian teams like Japan and South Korea showed surprising flair to reach the last 16.

4. 2 distinct styles have developed. For the taller teams, particularly from northern Europe, the direct approach of punting the ball far up with one supporting striker heading the ball down for his team mate to score has been more frequently attempted. The Dutch almost succeeded against the Spaniards. For the less tall Meditterranean European, South American and Far East Asian teams, the trend is towards possession football, a compact midfield and technique.


World domination for Spain
Iniesta scores in 116th minute in clash of 13 players booked
By James Dall Last updated: 11th July 2010


In an encounter riddled with persistent fouling, in particular from the Dutch, who had John Heitinga dismissed late on, Spain emerged as victors courtesy of Iniesta's effort that came in the 116th minute of the tie.

As expected, Spain head coach Vicente del Bosque again overlooked the rusty Fernando Torres with the 22-year-old Pedro keeping his place in the starting XI that defeated Germany. For Holland, Gregory van der Wiel and Nigel de Jong returned from suspension to replace Khalid Boulahrouz and Demy De Zeeuw.

Robin van Persie's foul on Sergio Busquets in the first minute was indicative of Holland's beginning to the encounter as they went about pressing their opponents robustly. But Spain were unruffled and the on-fire David Villa threatened to break clear on three minutes only to be flagged offside.

And it took the reigning European champions just five minutes to draw a fine stop from goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenburg, who was forced to get down to his right and parry clear following a powerful header from Sergio Ramos after Xavi had whipped in a free-kick from out wide. Gerard Pique was unable to turn home the rebound.

Tiki-taka
After yet more eager running from Villa, who was again called offside, a rare mistake in possession from the Spanish gifted Holland the ball. Busquets was sloppy as he tried to flick on a pass, and Dirk Kuyt looked to punish the holding midfielder. But the Liverpool forward's effort from distance was speculative and easy for Iker Casillas.

Spain continued to be very much on the front foot during the opening exchanges, with Holland seemingly dazed by the tiki-taka hypnosis. Ramos breezed past a heavy-footed Kuyt in the area before seeing his lash deflected out for a corner by the hopeful boot of Heitinga. Then, Villa thumped into the side-netting following a wicked cross by Xabi Alonso.

Referee Webb produced his first yellow card of the match on 15 minutes, cautioning Van Persie for a chop on Joan Capdevila. A minute later, Webb again brandished a booking, this time for Carles Puyol for a scythe from behind on so far quiet Arjen Robben.

But in the 22nd minute, the fouling resumed. First, the sometimes invisible Mark van Bommel was rightly carded for a horrid foul on Iniesta before Ramos joined him in Webb's notepad.

Cue another brutish incident in the 28th minute, with De Jong the culprit. The Manchester City enforcer dangled a high boot and his studs slammed into the chest of Alonso. A yellow was the fortunate outcome with Alonso lucky to escape sustaining a broken rib.

Quite the astonishing scare for Spain occurred on 34 minutes. As Holland sportingly pumped possession back goalwards to Casillas, the shot-stopper misjudged the ball's bounce as it skipped off the turf and threatened to drop in, with Casillas forced to stretch and flick out for a corner before swallowing to push his heart back from his throat to where it belongs.

After Van Bommel continued to play devil's advocate as he clattered into Xavi, a fractured first 45 minutes drew to a close, but not before a typical left-footer from Robben called Casillas into action as the keeper pushed away from danger.


Webb
Robben let fire with another trademark cut-in from the right channel but it was routine for Casillas. The game then began to open up, but the bookings also continued to rain down. Dutch skipper Giovanni Van Bronckhorst was carded for blocking off an opponent before Heitinga was given a yellow for catching Villa.

Del Bosque was the first of the two managers to make a substitution. The Spain head coach opted to bring on Jesus Navas for Pedro in the 60th minute. But it was the Dutch who were next to threaten as Van Persie's header floated off target following a Kuyt cross.

Then came the chance of the final thus far. Sneijder wonderfully threaded through Robben, who burst in on the exposed Casillas. Robben waited and waited for Casillas to commit before striking, only to see his effort clip off the dangling leg of the keeper, who deserves many plaudits for the stop.

Navas proved a decent introduction by Del Bosque as his liveliness on the right wing caused issues for Holland. Indeed, after Capdevila received the eighth yellow card of the game, in the 70th minute Navas drilled across goal. The ball was only half-cleared, as Villa pounced from close range, but Heitinga made the most vital of blocks to deny the striker.

On 77 minutes a curling corner found a completely unmarked Ramos. Yet from just seven yards out the Real Madrid defender planted his header over the bar to mark an astonishing miss. Meanwhile, the bitty nature of the clash failed to die down as an altercation between the hot-headed Van Bommel and Iniesta almost boiled over.

As the tension rose, Sneijder made a crucial intervention when he slid to snatch the ball away from Iniesta. Moments later, Robben's pace through the middle again caused problems with Puyol laboured. But, despite having the opportunity to go down under a Puyol challenge, Robben eventually lost possession as Casillas gathered. Robben was subsequently booked for protesting.

With four minutes remaining, Arsenal captain Cesc Fabregas entered the fray in place of Alonso. The alteration, however, failed to prevent the fixture reaching extra-time, with Robben and Ramos both left to reflect on what might have been following their respective clear-cut opportunities.


Dismissal
Three minutes into the first period of extra-time, Spain had appeals for a penalty rightly turned down by Webb, who judged that Xavi kicked into Heitinga when in the area. Two minutes after said claims, Fabregas was sent clean through following a super Iniesta pass, but his stab at goal was well saved by the foot of Stekelenburg.

Then it was Holland's chance to come close. Casillas was left in no man's land as Mathijsen rose, but the defender's header flashed over the bar despite the goal gaping. And twice in the space of two minutes, Van Bronckhorst was Holland's hero as he shut out Iniesta then deflected Navas' strike wide.

In the 19th minute of extra-time, Holland were reduced to 10 men after Heitinga received a second booking for pulling on Iniesta's shoulder. And with four minutes remaining, Spain scored the goal that won them the 2010 World Cup.

Fabregas slipped a pass to his right, and waiting was Iniesta. The Barcelona schemer took one touch before planting the ball past Stekelenburg with aplomb, sparking delirium from the Spanish players as they completed their mission for world domination.


Netherlands Team Statistics Spain

0 Goals 1

0 1st Half Goals 0

4 Shots on Target 4

8 Shots off Target 13

2 Blocked Shots 4

6 Corners 8

28 Fouls 19

7 Offsides 6

7 Yellow Cards 5

1 Red Cards 0

69 Passing Success 84.2

31 Tackles 28

67.7 Tackles Success 89.3

37.1 Possession 62.9

47.9 Territorial Advantage 52.1