Monday 24 June 2013

Why I Focus More On Cashflow Than Capital Gains

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nn-bd20zoU4

Listen to this interview with Robert Kiyosaki. "Capital Gains is a Ponzi Scheme." "It's a greater fool theory". When you buy a house in the hope that someone else will buy from you at a higher price, it's called a Ponzi Scheme. You're hoping that someone comes to take it off you at a much higher price.

Back in the Credit Crisis, the ones who got hit were the ones who went for pure capital gains without rental income. I can see it coming in the next three years. When interest rates rise, those who bought houses / shops at 2.5% yield will get hammered. Those who bought pricey houses at zero yields in Iskandar will get hammered when interest rates rise to 6 - 7%.

I am extremely cautious in everything I do. I cannot afford to lose what I've gained. Even for stocks, I go for high dividend plays. For properties, I definitely go for a good balance of yield and capital gains. If a house produces negative cashflow against my mortgage, I would avoid it. Cashflow is my defence in case I am stuck with it for a long time.

I hope readers take heed.

2 comments:

  1. Wow, that's a very scary prediction. I have a shophouse in Sutera Utama giving 5% yield and another lux condo The Marina View(Permas Jaya) at RM$850 psf (1559sqft)TOP end2015. Now I am worried about the latter.
    Looks like I have to put off buying my house in Singapore until 2015-2016 at least.
    I always agree with your analysis and posts after posts, i am getting worried about Marina View. Problem is, I don't think I can do a sub-sale until TOP end2015, which is in the eye of the perfect storm.
    jemme

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    1. Thanks Jemme. My cousin bought a condo very near the Causeway two years ago for RM300k. It is now worth RM500k according to him. The gross yield that he achieves now is around 5% based on current market value. But the mortgage rate is 4.2% so the spread is only 80 bps. This is worse than in Singapore where the average gross yield is 2.8% and borrowing cost 1.6%, a spread of 120 bps. I may be wrong about Iskandar. I always try to give a balanced view. But I will not buy a condo if the rental income cannot pay off at least 75% of my mortgage.

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