Thursday 22 May 2014

How To Make Money on Property in Tokyo

How to make money on property in Tokyo

FEBRUARY 16TH, 2011BY CATEGORY: APARTMENTSEVENTS
Property in Japan is comparatively cheap. According to an October 2010 article in The Economist, Japan is 35% undervalued.
However, rents haven’t dropped as much, so rental yields in Tokyo remain high when compared to other cities in developed countries. Since the 2nd half of last year, rents started moving higher again, with the outer wards doing better than the center of the city. With the government very eager to print money, I expect this trend to accelerate with capital gains of about 5% this year and more in 2012.
When buying properties, the investor should prefer older buildings because depreciation in Japan is brutal. Usually, new properties lose 60% of their value in 30 years. It is better to buy properties that are already fully depreciated. Small apartments and units outside the center have much higher rental yields. Focus on Tokyo as the population in the rest of the country is declining. Avoid family-sized units as more and more Japanese live alone.
The best rental income is, therefore, made by investing in smaller, older properties. Properties in the north end of Tokyo in areas such as Adachi-ku and Itabashi-ku are especially lucrative. These areas are flush with small apartments, often as small as 16 square meters, that were built in the late 1980s during the bubble. Originally, these units sold for around 20 to 25 million yen and can now be had for around 5 million yen. Rental income for such a unit is on average about 50,000 yen a month, resulting in a 12% gross rental yield. This is more than double the yield on a larger, newer property in the city center.
The reason for this is because when people buy a property for themselves, they tend to do so for their family. These buyers will have good income and have access to cheap mortgages, so they tend to buy in more central locations. The smaller properties outside the center tend to be occupied by renters and are bought by investors.
That said, in Japan it is very difficult to get investment loans, even for Japanese citizens. The few available investment mortgages carry high interest rates and come with many restrictions. So while there is ample financing for units that people prefer to live in, a lot of equity is required to buy an investment property.
These two phenomena drive up prices for larger, newer and centrally located properties. On the other hand the investment market is starved for financing options and so prices for investment properties tend to be lower, despite market rents staying stable. In short, the less the typical salaryman and his wife like a property, the better investment it is.
Buying these high yield apartments can be lucrative there are still many pitfalls that can ruin your income. Building maintenance and repair can take a big bite out of your income. Elevator maintenance and replacement is expensive, so try to buy apartments in buildings without an elevator. In older buildings with elevators, confirm the last time it was replaced or that the Repair Reserve Fund has enough capital on hand if an elevator needs to be replaced.
Always look at the land value. The owner of a property has a share of the underlying land. With older buildings it is common that the building itself is worthless and that all the value is in the land. In high-rises, invest in units on lower floors as they are cheaper while having the same land rights as higher floors. Avoid flood zones or irregular shaped pieces of land as this can significantly impact the land value. Check market rents for other apartments similar to the one you’re thinking of buying. The current renter of a property might be paying a higher than market rates as the rental contract might have been signed almost two years prior. Generally, across Tokyo in all budgets, rents have come down in the last two years.
In short, investing in property in Tokyo is very attractive, but it is important to target the right properties.
Note: Erik Oskamp is the CEO of Akasaka Real Estate and a long-term Tokyo real estate agent.  He will be leading an online webinar on Feb 25 at 2 p.m. in which he will share his insight and experience on the Tokyo property market.
If you are interested in finding out more, the webinar is open to all.  The Webinar page is here.

Singapore's Property Developers Will Face A Rough 2014-2016

I've repeatedly avoided buying Singapore property stocks, or indeed any Asian developer stocks because I'm convinced that most Asian cities are over supplied. Here are my reasons:

1. Unlike in the west, Asian properties did not face a steep fall in prices back in 2007-2012. This means Asian property prices continued to rise to new highs by 2014. All over Asia, price to income ratios are above 20x, with the exception of Bangkok ( which is grossly oversupplied anyway). Yields are at record low. In Most of Europe and US, price to income is between 3x to 15x. Australia' price to income ratio ranges between 5 (Darwin and Brisbane) to 10 (Sydney).

2. Interest rates are at record low all over the world, and mortgage as a percentage of income is at record high in Asia. Most Asian banks increased their appetite for mortgages post Global Financial Crisis. In the west, most banks curtailed lending and you cannot find mortgages even if you wanted. The two major exceptions in the west are the UK and Australia. Once interest rates rise, Asian cities will be hit hardest.

3. There are cranes everywhere in Asian cities. This means that supply is going to be massive in the next three years. Rents will fall and eventually those households who are over leveraged will fall. With the exception of London, Melbourne, Brisbane, you could not find a crane if you searched hard because many developers went bust after 2008.

Conclusion:

1. If you area patient and bargain hard, you'd probably be able to find decent off plan deals with developers. Between 2011-2013 off plan properties in Singapore used to be at a ridiculous premium of between 20-40% higher than resale properties. I never buy the B. S. that new properties cannot compare with old ones. You ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS compare off plan vs resale because you will sell in the resale market!!!!

2. The off plan premium will drop to 0-20% in the next 3 yearsl you can even find some deals where off plan is at a discount to the resale just like I did in London back in 2011/12, when market was quieter.

3. Avoid buying off plan properties where your deposit goes direct to the developer. You will lose everything if there developer goes bust. Remember the Asian crisis. If there is no provision to out your money in a trust account or escrow, make sure you putas little money as possible and get as big a bank loan as possible. The bank will check thoroughly for you that the developer is progressing.

4. Avoid Asian property stocks for the next two years. Many Chinese developers will fall on hard times. Some will default. Singapore developers will not recover strongly between now and 2015.

5. You can pick some developer bonds for between 6-7% YTM which are safe. Be very selective and you will be rewarded. In an industry sell off, most developers' stocks will crumble, bonds will be downgraded. But not all developers are the same. Those that have little leverage, and have strong owners (e.g. Govt linked or wealthy families like Li Ka Shing) will survive. The bonds will be bargains. Avoid the stocks nevertheless because they will probably dilute stocks to raise funds.


50 projects record poor sales

Despite the encouraging sales at some new launches, more developers are expected to slash their prices due to poor take-up or zero sales for existing projects, according to HSR International Realtors as reported in the media.

The property firm looked at a list of 50 residential projects that sold fewer than half of their units. There are at least eight with sales numbering less than 10 percent, while two have not found any buyer since launching last year.

These are the 48-unit Treasure on Balmoral that was released by Hiap Hoe in January 2013 and Regal Development's 8-unit Victory Ville cluster-housing project, which was launched last September.

Other projects with poor sales include Ivy Lee Realty's freehold condo in Devonshire Road. Known as Devonshire 8, the development only sold one of its 30 units at a median price of $2,500 psf.

Likewise, Popular Holdings only moved two units out of 26 at its 8 Raja project at a median price of $1,336 psf, while only seven units out of 91 were taken-up at Hong Leong Holdings' One Balmoral(pictured) at a median price of $2,411.

Consequently, the average take-up rate has merely inched up by 2.9 percentage points from 23.6 percent in December 2013.

HSR Research Analysts Tong Kooi Ong and Penny Yaw, said, "We expect more property developers to follow the step taken by CapitaLand to cut prices, especially for slow-moving projects."

Slashing the price by 15 to 20 percent could be the key to attracting buyers, they said. For example, Sky Habitat sold 106 units after decreasing its prices by 12 to13 percent, from $1,622 to $1,267 psf.

Muneerah Bee, Senior Journalist at PropertyGuru, edited this story. To contact her about this or other stories email muneerah@propertyguru.com.sg

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