Splashed all over investment sites and TV channels like Bloomberg and CNBC, headline news says, "bull run has reached its longest in history".
Nothing can be further from the truth. It is rather narrow minded to say that the bull run from 2009 1 March is in tact, when it only applies to the US.
Look at the S&P500 ETF. It is breaking a new high. In fact it is forming a double top. I expect a pull back from here due to record high valuation and technical resistance. However, if earnings are good, yield curve not inverted, the pull back can be shallow and resume its bull run.
What I cannot stand is this statement of a record long bull run only applies to the US. As if the US represents the world at large.
The Europe ETF is in bear territory, as is Asia ex Japan and Emerging Markets. In fact, between 2009 and now, Europe went through one bear market (defined by > 20% correction) between May 2011 and Feb 2013. Asia ex Japan and Emerging Markets suffered two bear markets between May 2011 and Feb 2013, and again between May 2015 and Feb 2016.
The US' longest bull run is punctuated by many bear markets in the rest of the world. The HSCEI has just fallen back to the 2015 low. Russia, Turkey too have fallen to its troubled lows of Feb 2016. There are plenty of opportunities outside of the US.
Prospects for US stocks in general for the next 10 years are extremely poor. I see a repeat of 2000 and 2007, where the S&P500 fluctuates around current levels.
I expect the Europe, EM, Asia x japan to bottom after the US Nov 18 mid term elections. The US president should be more dovish and tone down his trade tariff threats. I suspect in fact the three markets will bottom in Feb 2019. There could be yet another leg down to a lower level but not now.
A global recession could yet arrive but not till 2020 or 2021. We won't know. But the yield curve has yet to invert, economic growth is still strong in the US.
I'm beginning to suspect that politicians, central bankers control stock markets and property cycles by tweaking interest rates, lending policies, fiscal policies. The economic cycle takes a break when the Fed decides so.
My more extreme hypothesis is the US is the chief instigator of recoveries and crashes. The world watches the Fed closely. If the S&P 500 crashes, I've never seen other stock markets recover. If the S&P500 recovers, I've seen other stock markets crash, such as now. The world will take a while more to decouple from the US. Until we can have a second global currency, we are all hooked on USD as the world's reserve currency and hence at the mercy of the FED.
Nothing can be further from the truth. It is rather narrow minded to say that the bull run from 2009 1 March is in tact, when it only applies to the US.
Look at the S&P500 ETF. It is breaking a new high. In fact it is forming a double top. I expect a pull back from here due to record high valuation and technical resistance. However, if earnings are good, yield curve not inverted, the pull back can be shallow and resume its bull run.
What I cannot stand is this statement of a record long bull run only applies to the US. As if the US represents the world at large.
The Europe ETF is in bear territory, as is Asia ex Japan and Emerging Markets. In fact, between 2009 and now, Europe went through one bear market (defined by > 20% correction) between May 2011 and Feb 2013. Asia ex Japan and Emerging Markets suffered two bear markets between May 2011 and Feb 2013, and again between May 2015 and Feb 2016.
The US' longest bull run is punctuated by many bear markets in the rest of the world. The HSCEI has just fallen back to the 2015 low. Russia, Turkey too have fallen to its troubled lows of Feb 2016. There are plenty of opportunities outside of the US.
Prospects for US stocks in general for the next 10 years are extremely poor. I see a repeat of 2000 and 2007, where the S&P500 fluctuates around current levels.
I expect the Europe, EM, Asia x japan to bottom after the US Nov 18 mid term elections. The US president should be more dovish and tone down his trade tariff threats. I suspect in fact the three markets will bottom in Feb 2019. There could be yet another leg down to a lower level but not now.
A global recession could yet arrive but not till 2020 or 2021. We won't know. But the yield curve has yet to invert, economic growth is still strong in the US.
I'm beginning to suspect that politicians, central bankers control stock markets and property cycles by tweaking interest rates, lending policies, fiscal policies. The economic cycle takes a break when the Fed decides so.
My more extreme hypothesis is the US is the chief instigator of recoveries and crashes. The world watches the Fed closely. If the S&P 500 crashes, I've never seen other stock markets recover. If the S&P500 recovers, I've seen other stock markets crash, such as now. The world will take a while more to decouple from the US. Until we can have a second global currency, we are all hooked on USD as the world's reserve currency and hence at the mercy of the FED.
