I've combined several factors to produce abnormal returns; 1) size (small caps tend to be under researched and hence less efficient in price discovery), 2) value (cheaper price to book for example), 3) market factors (macro factors) and 4) momentum.
Momentum is really the secret sauce that minimises my downside and maximises upside. It is an algorithm which I use. The simple rule is, "cut your losses, let winners run".
My unit trust portfolio is easily up 15% this year as well.
I don't see a major bear market yet. Maybe second half of 2017. But I'm going to put my neck on the line that it will be from 4Q 17 to 1Q18 onwards. This is because I mapped this EM equity recovery to the 1998 - 2000 EM rally. This decade is similar to 1990 - 2000.
Momentum is really the secret sauce that minimises my downside and maximises upside. It is an algorithm which I use. The simple rule is, "cut your losses, let winners run".
My unit trust portfolio is easily up 15% this year as well.
I don't see a major bear market yet. Maybe second half of 2017. But I'm going to put my neck on the line that it will be from 4Q 17 to 1Q18 onwards. This is because I mapped this EM equity recovery to the 1998 - 2000 EM rally. This decade is similar to 1990 - 2000.
