Monday 23 May 2011

The End of QE2

My take of the aftermath is as follows:

1. Interest rates of UST will rise, especially those between 5 and 10 years. UST prices will fall due to lack of support buying.

2. USD will rebound. I expect USDSGD to rise to 1.27 from 1.23. It will probably not surpass 1.30. It is a last chance saloon to exit. The cessation of printing of money will make this almost a sure thing.

3. What happens to stocks and commodities is unclear. It is likely that both will fall. After all, USD is a risk aversion currency and negatively correlated to risk assets. However, both have corrected between 10 - 20% since March 2011 so any further drop may be limited. I don't expect commodities to rise anytime between now and July.

4. China's economic slowdown is the biggest worry on commodities. The empty buildings in cities, the construction sector, which accounted for a large part of China's GDP grinding to a halt.

5. I don't like EURSGD as well. They are almost 100% sure to embark of QE.

6. I like GBP as their government has no choice but to hike rates very soon as they are facing stagflation.

7. I suspect gold does not have much upside. At least not for long because the EU will hike 3 more times and UK's rates have to rise. This leaves the US as the only DM that has not started to hike. The higher rates are, the more headwind for gold. I believe 1600 end 2011 is the highest it can reach.

8. VIX may rise after being so low for prolonged periods. Amundi Volatility World may be a strong performer in the next 3 months. I don't think trend following funds like Man AHL has much upside because few asset classes are trending.

9. Economic data from the US indicates a slowdown in economy.

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