Many Singaporeans complain about the government's plan to grow the population to 6.9 million by 2030. If you amortise the 1.6 million growth over 17 years, it's like 94,118 increase per year. Our population growth has been at around 100 - 150k from 1996 - 2010, so it's actually a slow down of population growth. If our population were to grow at roughly 100k per year, and if we assume 3 people per household, we will need 33,333 new homes per annum.
I agree that the infrastructure is straining under the population boom. The government could have done more to anticipate this. In fact it was the fault of various ministries that they did not communicate with each other. The Ministry of Manpower failed to coordinate with HDB and URA to plan for the influx of immigration between 2003 - 2012, causing real estate prices to shoot out of control.
But what if we reject this notion of a 6.9m or 7m population target? We will become another Japan with three lost decades. The demographics will be such that over 25% of the population in Singapore will be over 65. Workforce will shrink, taxes will rise. We will then either have to raise retirement age to 75 or we will have to raise taxes because there will be fewer people working and paying taxes. Worst, our real estate prices, from residential to commercial to offices, will fall! Every one has to wake up to the economic reality of a demographic collapse! Singaporeans may suffer from falling living standards and our wealth will be eroded. Look, everybody is angry over the high Gini coefficient of 0.48. The wage gap between the top 10 percentile and bottom 10 is abysmal. But by not increasing our population, either through immigration or by increasing birth rate, we the wage gap will narrow. But it will not narrow because the poor experience higher wages, but because there will be fewer richer people!
We have to ask ourselves whether we want to be a socialist Europe, where many people are on welfare, and the rich are leaving in droves! Taxes are very high in Europe due to strong social safety net. But it disincentivises you to work, especially if you're entrepreneural, intelligent, and hard working. So if you're blessed with the traits I mentioned above, you would leave the country for another place with lower taxes, that welcomes you. That's what's happening in Europe. We cannot head that way!
What the government needs to do is to look through the various sectors and decide how many foreign talent is required for each sector. It must ensure there is cultural, racial and gender inclusion in work place. There must be preference for local talent in the PMET segment. Only if a talent cannot be found, or hired at a reasonable price, can the employer then hire non Singaporeans. This will ensure that citizens will always be taken care of first and be fairly treated. There are many MNCs in Singapore that hire only people from one nationality, and that's not Singaporeans. It's as if the Ministry of Manpower has fallen asleep. This hands off approach cannot continue.
As for the retirees, they should be encouraged to move to the Iskandar region so to enjoy a slower life style, cheaper cost of living as well as the amenities of Singapore. This will keep the working population large as a proportion of total population. However, this is a very political issue which I am unsure if Malaysia and Singapore can come to an understanding. But I am aware that many clients are already planning to retire in Malaysia and Thailand, by buying homes in KL, Iskandar and Bangkok.
So other than tweaking the immigration policy to ensure justice and more protection of citizens, the population must grow. There is no turning back. We cannot turn into a Japan and be stubborn or myopic about it.
