There is a 5 - 10% chance that the US government may actually default on its debt on 17 Oct. Meanwhile, the correction of stock markets worldwide has made some markets cheap again. I'm buying into European equities because the MSCI Europe's Cyclically Adjusted PE ratio or "CAPE" is around 13x vs the median of 15x. S&P500's CAPE is around 18 - 20x so it's in the expensive zone. I've sold off my US funds and moving into Europe ETF, Aberdeen European Opportunities for my CPF account and Blackrock European Equities for my cash account.
I'm staggering my purchases in Asia x Japan and Emerging Market equities. Basically, in view of this threat of default, I will buy one tranche now and another tranche after the issue is temporarily resolved.
Even if the US does default in the 5% probability, there is a 4.9% chance that it will quickly make good the coupons a few days after 17 Oct. and a 0.1% chance that it will default permanently. You must know that the US still has its financial fate in its own hands, because ALL its government debt is denominated in USD. Why issue other currency debt when the whole world uses USD as the de facto currency? So it could theoretically print as much money as it wants.
In the longer term, investors may shift focus to German Bunds and Japanese government bonds because they are also AAA rated. Australian government bonds could also gain in attractiveness. Already, the German 10 year bunds is at 1.8%, lower than the equivalent UST's 2.6%.
Thursday 10 October 2013
Why You Must Walk The Ground When You Buy Overseas Properties!
http://www.aetv.com/flipping-vegas/episode-guide/season-2/condo-from-hell-9#9
You should watch the TV series called, "Flipping Vegas". In one episode, Scott bought a condo in a bad neighbourhood for USD15k, thinking that he could just spend 8k in repairs and sell it for 32k. But the problems just mount.
1. Gangs roam the neighbourhood. Safety of tenants is a big issue because the house keeps getting burgled. If you can't rent it out or can't find quality tenants who can pay your rent on time, chances are you'll have problems selling it at a profit!
2. Some landlords actually get shot in UK, US and Malaysia trying to collect their rent from "social tenants" or tenants of lower social strata.
3. Some condos could have major repairs. Roofing could totally be gone and the sinking fund of the condo EMPTY. That's right, the management company has misused the money and the new company is stuck with NOTHING in the coffers. A lawsuit between owners and previous management company could ensue but no resolution could be found for several years. Meanwhile, every owner will need to contribute several thousands to top up the sinking fund.
4. Continued mismanagement by the managing company. This could happen very often, especially in developing countries like Malaysia where the rule of law is weak.
5. Sometimes, the whole condo project could be in such a state of disrepair that it is abandoned. 15k may sound like a steal but at the end it is worth nothing but the "air space".
Before you buy, you should check crime rates around the area. Think of the most dangerous neighbourhood in Singapore, perhaps Geylang, and imagine it 10x worse, with gangs of jobless kids roaming the streets at night looking for people to steal from. You should never rely on glossy brochures to buy a house.
You should walk the area in the day, and at night. A place that is bright and cheery in the day may turn into a scary graveyard at night. Walk the area on a weekday and weekend as well. Traffic may be especially bad and noisy on weekdays but quiet in the weekend.
You should watch the TV series called, "Flipping Vegas". In one episode, Scott bought a condo in a bad neighbourhood for USD15k, thinking that he could just spend 8k in repairs and sell it for 32k. But the problems just mount.
1. Gangs roam the neighbourhood. Safety of tenants is a big issue because the house keeps getting burgled. If you can't rent it out or can't find quality tenants who can pay your rent on time, chances are you'll have problems selling it at a profit!
2. Some landlords actually get shot in UK, US and Malaysia trying to collect their rent from "social tenants" or tenants of lower social strata.
3. Some condos could have major repairs. Roofing could totally be gone and the sinking fund of the condo EMPTY. That's right, the management company has misused the money and the new company is stuck with NOTHING in the coffers. A lawsuit between owners and previous management company could ensue but no resolution could be found for several years. Meanwhile, every owner will need to contribute several thousands to top up the sinking fund.
4. Continued mismanagement by the managing company. This could happen very often, especially in developing countries like Malaysia where the rule of law is weak.
5. Sometimes, the whole condo project could be in such a state of disrepair that it is abandoned. 15k may sound like a steal but at the end it is worth nothing but the "air space".
Before you buy, you should check crime rates around the area. Think of the most dangerous neighbourhood in Singapore, perhaps Geylang, and imagine it 10x worse, with gangs of jobless kids roaming the streets at night looking for people to steal from. You should never rely on glossy brochures to buy a house.
You should walk the area in the day, and at night. A place that is bright and cheery in the day may turn into a scary graveyard at night. Walk the area on a weekday and weekend as well. Traffic may be especially bad and noisy on weekdays but quiet in the weekend.
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