A Father's Rules for Finding Fulfillment

This is one of the most touching story I've heard. Even more touching are the words from Paul. It's almost as touching as the poem called, "If" by Rudyard Kipling. Read on...

http://sg.yahoo.matchmove.com/news/article/a-fathers-message-from-beyond-the-grave

A FATHER'S RULES FOR FINDING FULFILLMENT

Be courteous, be punctual, always say please and thank you, and be sure to hold your knife and fork properly. Others take their cue on how to treat you from your manners.

Be kind, considerate and compassionate when others are in trouble, even if you have problems of your own. Others will admire your selflessness and will help you in due course.
Show moral courage. Do what is right, even if that makes you unpopular. I always thought it important to be able to look at myself in the shaving mirror every morning and not feel guilt or remorse. I depart this world with a pretty clear conscience.
Show humility. Stand your ground but pause to reflect on what the other side are saying, and back off when you know you are wrong. Never worry about losing face. That only happens when you are pig-headed.
Learn from your mistakes. You will make plenty so use them as a learning tool. If you keep making the same mistake or run into a problem, you’re doing something wrong.
Avoid disparaging someone to a third party; it is only you who will look bad. If you have a problem with someone, tell them face to face.
Hold fire! If someone crosses you, don’t react immediately. Once you say something it can never be taken back, and most people deserve a second chance.
Have fun. If this involves taking risks, so be it. If you get caught, hold your hands up.
Give to charity and help those who are less fortunate than yourselves: it’s easy and so rewarding.
Always look on the upside! The glass is half full, never half empty. Every adversity has a silver lining if you seek it out.
Make it your instinct always to say ‘yes’. Look for reasons to do something, not reasons to say no. Your friends will cherish you for that.
Be canny: you will get more of what you want if you can give someone more of what they desire. Compromise can be king.
Always accept a party invitation. You may not want to go, but they want you there. Show them courtesy and respect.
Never ever let a friend down. I would bury bodies for my friends, if they asked me to . . . which is why I have chosen them carefully.
Always tip for good service. It shows respect. But never reward poor service. Poor service is insulting.
Always treat those you meet as your social equal, whether they are above or below your station in life. For those above you, show due deference, but don’t be a sycophant.
Always respect age, as age equals wisdom.
Be prepared to put the interests of your sibling first.
Be proud of who you are and where you come from, but open your mind to other cultures and languages. When you begin to travel (as I hope you will), you’ll learn that your place in the world is both vital and insignificant. Don’t get too big for your breeches.
Be ambitious, but not nakedly so. Be prepared to back your assertions with craftsmanship and hard work.
Live every day to its full: do something that makes you smile or laugh, and avoid procrastination.
Give of your best at school. Some teachers forget that pupils need incentives. So if your teacher doesn’t give you one, devise your own.
Always pay the most you can afford. Never skimp on hotels, clothing, shoes, make-up or jewellery. But always look for a deal. You get what you pay for.
Never give up! My two little soldiers have no dad, but you are brave, big-hearted, fit and strong. You are also loved by an immensely kind and supportive team of family and friends. You make your own good fortune, my children, so battle on.
Never feel sorry for yourself, or at least don’t do it for long. Crying doesn’t make things better.
Look after your body and it will look after you.
Learn a language, or at least try. Never engage a person abroad in conversation without first greeting them in their own language; by all means ask if they speak English!
And finally, cherish your mother, and take very good care of her.
I love you both with all my heart.
Daddy x

Investment Outlook for Second Half of 2011

As I was scanning through my blogs I came across this entry that I wrote last year, about a year ago.

http://musingsonwallstreet.blogspot.com/2010/08/investment-outlook-2nd-half-2010-2011.html

I said that the equity market will surprise many and break new highs until first quarter 2011. I was absolutely spot on because stocks peaked in May 2011. However, I think I'll be wrong with regards to a recession coming in end 2011 or beginning 2012. I now think that it will probably be in 2013.

Here's why:

1. The US debt ceiling will be raised. In whatever form, whether it be Obama not getting the ceiling raised enough to last through his Nov 2012 elections or if it only lasts for 6 months.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-31/white-house-republicans-said-to-reach-tentative-deal-on-u-s-debt-ceiling.html

2. US government debt may be downgraded finally. This will cause a knee jerk drop in stock markets, which will be a buying opportunity. It will be a semi-permanent rise in borrowing cost for the Americans which will cause their stocks to tank and their economy to grow slower since their cost of capital will rise. But as long as they don't default, the world's financial system will continue.

3. There is always the option of QE3 if inflation falls to near 0.5%. This will propel stocks for another 6 months into early 2012.

4. The Eurozone's debt problem would have been avoided until 2013. When Europe's economic growth slow sufficiently, the debt problems of Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Spain and Italy will resurface. Germany and France may decide that it is too costly to continue to bail out the smaller countries... thereby allowing them to default.

5. Company 2nd quarter earnings so far show that 80% are above expectations. Asia and Emerging Markets are powering this global growth.

I will be very cautious going into the middle of 2012 because China's GDP may eventually dip below 7% and land hard... Eurozone may burst. After Obama's re-election, he will have to make all the hard decisions to curb spending, thereby pulling down the US' economy.

My preferred asset allocation is now 40% equities, 25% commodities, 15% Templeton Global Total Return Bond Fund SGD Hedged, 20% Amundi Volatility World + Winton Futures.