Tuesday 8 October 2013

How Gentrification in London Can Be Speeded Up

There are large swathes of council estates in East London. Most City workers live in East or Central London when they start, but move to North and West London once they got married and start a family. Unlike Asians, most Britons prefer low density housing estates, with gardens at the back so that their kids can play in a safe environment. In ugly tower blocks, crime tends to be rampant. But Asians have been snapping up new tower blocks, especially in the east.

Buying UK or more specifically London properties is very different from Singapore. Crime rates are much higher in certain boroughs in London, specifically Tower Hamlets (including Canary Wharf), Newham (Stratford and Custom House), Greenwich (Woolwich). It also coincides with a highest proportion of council estate, whose residents often have the lowest income and highest joblessness. In Singapore, perhaps with the exception of Serangoon Road and Geylang, everywhere is safe. London is more similar to KL than to Singapore. A friend of mine who swore by East London recently had a neighbour who's apartment was burgled. She's now considering to shift to London Bridge.

It is easier to gentrify Singapore than certain parts of London. Singapore can quickly gentrify certain areas by doing the following:

1. A high GDP growth rate and low unemployment rate meant that even if the residents of say Balestier remain, their incomes will grow and nicer shops / restaurants will be set up.

2. Raising plot ratios or releasing vacant land to build higher intensity developments at higher prices, thereby attracting higher income occupants. In this case, residents of en bloc properties may be displaced.

3. Improvement in infrastructure such as MRT station, or business will increase rental demand in the vicinity. This will attract investors which in turn drives up property prices.

In the UK, GDP growth is much slower than Singapore's 4 - 5% annual rate. Unemployment rate is also much higher. There are many other significant challenges, such as:

1. Influx of refugees / homeless people from the EU adds strain to the housing needs. They are given priority to council flats. They often displace the incumbent population and cause "reverse gentrification". In my first visit to Woolwich 4 years ago, the residents were mainly Eastern Europeans and some Africans. In my last visit, it seems that 80% of the residents are from African countries who spoke no English. The immigration policy needs to be tightened and the right type of people let in.

2. With large council estates especially in the east, slow economic growth and high unemployment rates, a borough cannot easily gentrify. I am aware that certain council blocks are either being bought by the tenants, and some blocks are demolished once the leases expire, to make way for private blocks. But these are few and far in between. Displacing large populations of socially deprived people to another area is not a long term solution as it merely shifts the problem to another area.

3. The quality of inner city schools need to improve. Because to gentrify an area, the next generation needs to have good employable skills so that incomes can be raised.

4. Social benefit payouts need to be reduced. The culture of entitlement needs to be quashed. Income and corporate taxes should be reduced to attract more investments and retain talent.

UK's problems are similar to much of socialist Eurozone, a culture of entitlement, high unemployment, high taxes, too much minority rights. It needs to find the right balance between economic growth and social welfare so that the nation can reinvent itself.