http://musingsonwallstreet.blogspot.sg/2012/12/gold-and-silver-in-consolidation-phase.html
Refer to my post above. I mentioned that gold and silver are not going anywhere at least for the next few months. I was right. There is a great shift from investment grade and high yield bonds to high dividend stocks at the moment. This shift started in Oct 2011 and has continued until today. It will continue until interest rates start to creep upwards and close the gap with dividend yields of stocks. When that occurs, which I suspect will be around 2014, earnings need to recover in order for the rally to sustain. Otherwise, stocks will face a major correction like in Oct 2011 to bring valuations down to attractive levels again. But if earnings recover strongly, there will be another great shift from dividend stocks to growth stocks.
In a situation where investors are still skittish about recovery, and inflation is benign (unemployment in the western world still above 7% for the US and above 10% for the EU), gold is ignored. I believe commodity related stocks will stage a multi-year rally, stretching up to early 2014.
The correction of stock markets started on 28 Jan 2013. Since then, the S&P500 continued to trend upwards but Asia ex Japan stocks stayed sideways. I think this is not over yet. There will be another leg down before buying opportunities present itself.
