Sunday 28 August 2011

Very Muted Growth Coming for Next 10 Years: Faber

I believe Singapore's export dependent economy will plunge into quite a long recession, starting from 2nd half of 2011, well into 2012. While the risk of a recession in the US and EU is around 30 - 40%, Singapore is far more sensitive to western economies' growth.

Perhaps we should have switched to a more service oriented economy and do away with the manufacturing sector slowly. Since the 80s, Singapore has never been suitable for manufacturing because our labour cost is very high.

Moreover, most Singaporeans don't aspire to be factory workers, but in well-heeled jobs in the service sector.

Winter is heading our way.



'Very muted growth' coming for next 10 years: Faber

Published on Tue, Aug 23, 2011 at 22:04 | Source :
Updated at Wed, Aug 24, 2011 at 10:31
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'Very muted growth' coming for next 10 years: Faber
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Both the US and Europe are facing a decade of slow growth brought on primarily by the blunders of central banks, noted doomsayer Marc Faber said.
Investors should protect themselves by buying plenty of physical gold and putting it in a secure location, preferably outside the US, the author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom newsletter told CNBC.
"If I look at the politicians both in Europe and the US, I don't think that prospect (for growth) is very good," he said. "If I also look at the entitlement system and the government expenditures and the fiscal deficits and the debt overhang, I think for the next 10 years we'll have very muted growth in the Western world and standards of living for the average household will continue to decline."
In other words, he said, the next 10 years are likely to be much like the previous decade.
"I think we never really came out of the recession in many different sectors of the economy," Faber said. "If you look back to say 1999 to today, the US as an economy, macroeconomically speaking, is of course much worse off than in 1999—courtesy of the Federal Reserve I may add."
Many prominent economists have joined Faber's dour outlook for the US economy, at least in the short term.
Goldman Sachs has cut its forecast for growth to 1.5% for the year, and other parts of the world are experiencing slowdowns, as well.
In such a slow-growth environment, Faber prescribed a diversified mix for portfolios—25% to 30% in stocks, 20% to 30% in physical gold—"in a safe deposit box ideally outside the US in various locations" because "I don't trust anyone"—some cash, and up to 30% in real estate, particularly in Asia.
"I think it's important in today's very uncertain world to diversify not only in various asset classes...but also the custody of your assets should be in different jurisdictions," he said.
Amid the turmoil surrounding markets, including the Standard & Poor's downgrade of US debt, gridlock in Washington and burgeoning European debt problems, Faber predicted more investors would pull back positions in the capital markets.
"Investors, kind of worldwide, trusted the regulators, they trusted the system and they were enthusiastic about owning equities," he said. "Over the last 10 years, the mood has changed a lot. Investors and individual investors in particular, they don't trust management anymore. They are upset about executive compensation, they're upset about regulators. They think the markets are rigged and they're upset about the ratings agencies.
"A lot of individuals will not came back to the (stock) market and on rebound they will have reduced their positions."