Friday 27 January 2017

Do Not Attempt to Forecast

Forecasters are no better than highly paid fortune tellers. Do not be deceived. Follow momentum and valuations. Fundamentals are important. Getting something cheap increases the chances of outperformance over time, and the level of capital gains. Charts indicate when the catalyst acts.

2017 has started well for all sectors except Asian bonds. I am holding fast to the theory that the momentum will carry us up to the second half of 2017. Beyond that, we could see a huge correction. Something more damaging than 2011 and 2015. Perhaps the bear will come.

I'm up 30% for the year. It's been a good 13 months for me.