Saturday, 15 February 2014

Why I think the mining sector has bottomed! Part 2


After peaking in Dec 2010, the mining index fell by 48%! The Chinese economy slowed. There was oversupply in commodity supply. The Chinese mines were producing at breakneck pace, such that they will be net exporters by 2015 / 16. Coal miners were being phased out as new environmental laws sought to curtail coal fired power plants in China. After years of wastage, lavish spending by miners, the costs have caught up with revenue.

After three years of decline, many smaller mines have closed. Capex shrank. Valuations of mining stocks fell below median levels.

Chart wise, the monthly chart indicates an important inflexion point.

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