Sunday, 28 April 2013

Exit Strategy for Buy to Let Investors Worldwide

This is a very good article from "this is money".

One question is asked more than any other at property investment shows and it’s about exit strategy. Not that investors necessarily know that’s what they are asking.
They enquire if they should buy more properties or sell some. How much tax they will pay if they sell a certain property. Or how many properties they need to buy to live comfortably. Occasionally, someone says they own 30 houses and doesn’t know what to do next.
It all boils down to the same thing; knowing how and when you want your buy-to-let investment to end. Only then will you know where to start.
There are broadly three reasons for investing in a buy-to-let property: for a pension; for financial freedom; and to pass the property on to one’s children.
There are two ways of achieving the first two. “First, by generating income from properties and second, through capital growth which can be re-invested once the properties are sold,” says Kate Faulkner, director of Designs on Property.
Passing property on to children is an inheritance issue that “typically means generating capital growth or a property covering its costs. Then the child moves in and takes over the running costs,” Faulkner adds.
Most people want a combination of capital growth and rental income from a buy-to-let property, but in today’s climate that may not be easy.
“Properties which offer capital growth typically give less than seven per cent income return, so you aren’t likely to generate much income unless you buy the property outright. Properties giving higher income returns usually aren’t in areas where properties are growing in value,” says Faulkner, citing north Nottingham, where some flats are selling for their 2002 prices.
Many landlords forget that they buy property to make money. “They stick with tenants they like rather than take on new ones who will pay a higher rent,” says Robin Campbell, director of sales at investment company Midas Estates.
“An experienced mortgage broker will ensure you are always on the best products to meet your goals.
“Otherwise, you could delay your exit. Also do a six-monthly valuation of your property, along with rent and mortgage reviews, to assess where you stand equity-wise.”
If you don’t set yourself capital growth or income targets, how do you know you have invested your money in the right asset?
“You won’t know whether you should sell up or retire now, or if you should buy more properties or if you should be cashing in,” says Faulkner. “It would be like running a business without a business plan. The bank wouldn’t lend you money without one.”
Landlords should look for a minimum of 125 per cent rental income compared with the monthly mortgage payment as that is what lenders demand. Bear in mind that this income is subject to tax, so you may not want to exceed this figure substantially.
“Landlords with multiple properties will typically borrow as much money against the property as possible while keeping it self-financing,” says Samantha Cooper, MD of the Somerset-based mortgage firm Cooper Associates.
“This type of investor, who isn’t concerned about drawing an income, will keep borrowing money against their investment properties as property prices rise. They will use the capital drawn to redeem their own residential mortgages quickly, and to mitigate income tax on their investment properties.”
According to Rightmove, 30 per cent of BTL investors expect a minimum gross yield of five per cent. An ambitious 11 per cent want at least 10 per cent.
Swansea is one place to look for that, says James Davis from online lettings agency Upad. “House prices haven’t changed in five years, but I’m getting 11 per cent gross yields and rents are rising by 20 per cent a year, due to a growing tenant pool, mainly of priced-out would-be first time buyers,” he says.
Many landlords under-estimate how much they will need to spend on maintenance — about 10 per cent of your rental income, estimates Jonathan Monjack, founder of the Happy Tenant Company, who can reduce those costs for landlords through the power of group buying.
Other landlords fail to maximise their property’s profitability by offering the wrong product for the market. Davis suggests modifying the property to match demand.
“If a new university campus is opening, convert your house into self-contained units for students. If a big employer is arriving locally, convert a house into flats to suit young professionals,” he says.
Don’t forget: your property is a business. And no business thrives from its owner sitting back and letting it run itself.
For information on how to maximise your returns, minimise costs and stay in control, visit Direct Line’s dedicated Landlord Knowledge Centre atdirectlineforbusiness.co.uk/knowledge-centre.

Saturday, 27 April 2013

Risk On Again

Most stock markets have bottomed. HSCEI is finding some support at current levels. I noticed cyclical stocks in China beginning to turn around. MSCI Asia x Japan is also turning up. This correction has lasted from 28 Jan 2013 and is still ongoing. But the time may have arrived to dollar cost average in.

Wednesday, 24 April 2013

Stratford London Field Trip

We visited Stratford a few days ago to assess the investment prospects. We took lots of photos but my iPad does not allow me to attach photos here. When we got out of the huge Stratford station, we notice the huge transport network there. It has potential to be a major commercial and residential hub. The cross rail will connect Stratford to heathrow airport, moving through central London. Eurostar rail also starts from Stratford.

We then walked east of the station towards Stratford eye. We realized the bulk of the housing were council flats, much like woolwich. A lone modern looking tower stood high at the edge of the council flats area. It's called Stratford eye. We realized it was next to a five-track railway line. We stood around for a while and could hear the sound from the screechings of the trains as they come to a halt. Since this is a major transport hub, all sorts of trains pass by every few minutes. If you live in Stratford eye, you're likely to be non professional. If you are at a high floor you could overlook the ugly tracks below and see the London sky line from afar. But you'll have to keep your windows closed. If you're staying in a low floor, I believe rentals will be very low. Not only will you not have any views, the noise may drive you crazy. There is also a problem of crime. On the secured common door where you need a FOB to get in, a sign says, "look behind you before you open the door". There is no concierge or security so if you go home late at night, you'd have to be very careful you're not being followed.

We then went to the site of Stratford plaza, which we at first felt back in late 2012 was a good bargain at only £400 psf. I believe JLL brought the product to Singapore. It was in a better side of the tube station, the west side. But it was equally close to the track and the noise was just as great! We were vindicated.

We walked around the Westfield mall and it was magnificent and huge. The pedestrian traffic was also very good. Note that this was a Sunday. There was Jamie Oliver's Italian, Gucci , a good mix of upmarket and mass market outlets. I can see why this Westfield is touted as the biggest in Europe. People like to live near the mall so we felt Stratford has potential.

Next we walked around Westfield, which had quite a big circumference. There was a huge site for offices, which we felt was could possibly rival canary wharf as the second largest commercial site. Check.

But from afar we could see large blocks of flats from the Olympic village site which will probably be turned into affordable housing. There will be around 4800 units once ready. Stratford is such a huge site that we believe it will eventually flourish, but at the moment, there will be oversupply of homes. The offices will take around 5-10 years to complete. Meanwhile , the affordable housing will be ready within a  year. If you bought a home in Stratford, you will have to compete with shared ownership flats available and your rental could be depressed for the next few years. I draw a parallel with Nusajaya of Iskandar where there is a lot of land for homes and I believe resale value will be weak. Condo's rental demand in Iskandar  will be almost non existent.

The other challenge is the high proportion of council flats, affordable housing and shared ownership homes. Will the area regenerate into a middle class area or remain a HDB heart land. Note that in Britain, council flats and affordable housing is not even like HDB. It's like those rental flats in Chinatown.

On the up side, the govt's investment in Stratford is higher than elsewhere. Woolwich, croydon and canary wharf does not even come close. This bodes well fro the future of Stratford in 3-5 years' time.

I will stay away for Stratford for a while. It has great potential but I'd wait a little while to see what the governments would do.

We visited north greenwich and we like what we saw. Will write about it later.


Saturday, 20 April 2013

Chinese Equities: First Signs of Bottoming

Around January 2013, I told my clients and colleagues that I felt uncomfortable about equities around the world. I felt positive due to the following factors:

1. The three largest economies in the world will see gradual improvements. US' real estate is on the mend, consumption is rising. EU is the weakest of the three areas, as austerity measures begin to bite. China's exports will start to climb on the back of US' recovery. While they export less due to the weakening USDCNY pair, this is partly offset by stronger domestic consumption.

2. Most investors are overweight bonds. Yields have fallen to levels which don't make sense. The "Great Rotation" out of cash / bonds into equities will take a year to complete.

3. Valuations of Asian and certain European countries are near 2008 trough valuations: e.g. China, Russia, Spain and Italy.

4. Low or falling inflation in OECD countries.

However, I am worreid for the following factors:

1. Whenever everyone is bullish on equities, that means anyone who intends to buy has already done so. The same situation happened in 2011. I felt that around April and May 2013, we'll see a correction.

2. Asia is struggling with inflation. S&P500's PE ratio is over 16x. Will the US correction bring down Asian equities too?

3. Mining margins have collapsed. Metal inventories are at the same high as in 2011, before the collapse of mining stocks. While destocking has occured, costs of mining have risen and hence brought down margins. Mining stocks will be a laggard.

IN the last four days, my hedge fund manager friends told me that they have started to buy 2828 and 2823 HK. Sure enough, I saw the chart of Poly Property, a real estate developer turn around strongly yesterday. Cyclical stocks have made the first signs of turning. Xtep, an apparel company, also showed signs of turnaround.

This is by no means a confirmation that the correction is over. I think we need a week or two before confirming it. But for traders who are willing to cut loss, it may be a good time to accumulate now. If it falls a further 10%, cut your loss.

Thursday, 18 April 2013

Invest in Countries Where Governments Are Trying To Reflate Property Prices

I chose UK and the US as my favourite property destinations. Why? There are a few countries in the world where the governments are trying to reflate property prices: UK definitely. US yes. Europe? The governments are bankrupt. Otherwise they'd have done the same. I usually buy homes in these countries. Yes I know that London isn't cheap any more. The net yield is not fantastic. Price to income ratio is between 11 - 13x. I should buy a single-family home in Arizona, which has a price to income ratio of 3 - 5x. But government policies act like winds against my sails. I can ride it on the way up. Although I invested in both countries, I put in far more in London than in New York or the States. You see, capital gains tax, other taxes are also a big factor. Capital gains tax lowers my IRR.

I usually invest less in countries where the governments are trying to curb the rise in price. Singapore is one big example. I've stopped for now. Malaysia increasingly is going to lower LTVs. Hong Kong and China totally cannot buy.

Australia and New Zealand are in neutral territory. Their property prices never fall that much and are now rising. Check out New Zealand. No capital gains tax. Some cities are far from the earthquake zones. Do your homework.

Help To Buy Equity and Mortgage Guarantee Scheme to Boost England's Property Prices in the Next Three Years!

The UK government recently announced a Help-To-Buy Equity Scheme which comprises a budget of GBP140 billion and is expected to last from 2014 - 2016. For as little as 5% deposit and for homes of up to GBP600k, buyers can step on the property ladder. Unfortunately, this scheme is available only for new homes.

However, the Help-to-Buy mortgage guarantee is a guarantee by the UK government to lenders in case the borrower defaults. It is available for off-plan and resale properties. However, the minimum deposit is not guaranteed at 5% but set by lenders. I reckon it will bring mortgage rates down and LTV up from 75% to between 80 and 90%.

It will boost property prices in England. Developers especially will rejoice because people with very little savings can now purchase a property. The developers may raise prices by 10 - 20% because to a buyer, a 10 percentage point increase in price only leads to a 0.5% increase in downpayment. But I'm not sure if it will lead to a housing bubble three years down the road. I recently secured a tenant for my flat at Pierhead Lock and my gross yield is 5.3%. Net yield is around 3.5%. My carry is only 0.2%. However, there's scope for UK's mortgage rate to fall to 2.2% in my opinion so my carry will increase to 1.3%.

I bought two homes, one off-plan and one resale. I eagerly await my property prices to rise.


http://www.barratthomes.co.uk/offers/help-to-buy/Help-to-Buy-Terms-and-Conditions/

Help to Buy
The Chancellor announced a £5.4 billion package of financial support to tackle long-term problems in the housing market at Budget, including the launch of Help to Buy - which offers two schemes aimed at helping those who want to get on, or move up, the housing ladder. This FAQ answers some of your questions about the scheme.

What is Help to Buy?

Help to Buy is made up of two schemes – “equity loan” where the Government will loan you up to 20% of the value of your new build home and “mortgage guarantee” where lenders will be incentivised to make more mortgages available for people with small deposits.

Why has the Government set up these schemes?

The Government wants to help more people across the country make the aspiration of home ownership a reality. Help to Buy is aimed at increasing the supply of low-deposit mortgages as well as new housing.

Can I buy a house using Help to Buy?

If you have a 5% deposit and want to buy a new build home, you’ll be able to access the Help to Buy: equity loan scheme from 1 April 2013. If you want to buy a property which is either new build or an existing property, the Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee will be available from January 2014.

What if I don’t have a deposit – can I still get a mortgage?

To access a Help to Buy product, buyers will need a minimum 5% deposit.

Am I guaranteed to get a mortgage? Are there any criteria I need to meet?

For both schemes, borrowers will need to meet appropriate tests to ensure they can pay back the mortgage, as well passing their chosen lender’s credit and affordability checks.

How much can I borrow?

Subject to meeting the eligibility criteria and affordability checks, you’ll be able to use either Help to Buy scheme to purchase a property with a value up to £600,000.

Can existing homeowners access the scheme?

Yes. Both schemes are available to home movers as well as first-time-buyers, subject to meeting the relevant eligibility criteria.

Can I get an interest only mortgage using Help to Buy?

Help to Buy is only available on capital repayment mortgages.

Can I buy a property using Help to Buy and rent it out?

Help to Buy will only be available on properties which are occupied by the individual or individuals taking out the mortgage.

How do I go about accessing these schemes?

Help to Buy: equity loan will be available from 1 April 2013. Buyers will be able to access this through participating housebuilders and HomeBuy agents.
Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee will be available from January 2014. The Government will provide further details about the scheme later in the year.

Can I get a mortgage through an incorporated company?

Help to Buy mortgages are only available to an individual or individuals rather than incorporated companies.

Can I still get a NewBuy mortgage?

Yes. This scheme is still in place and remains open to buyers.

Questions on Help to Buy: equity loan

What is the Help to Buy: equity loan scheme?

The Government will provide buyers with an equity loan of up to 20% of the value of a new build property. The loan is interest free for the first five years. From year six a fee of 1.75% is payable on the equity loan, which rises annually by RPI inflation plus 1 %.

When will I be able to get a Help to Buy: equity loan?

Help to Buy: equity loan will be available from 1 April 2013.

When will I have to pay back my equity loan?

The equity loan can be repaid at any time within 25 years (or the terms of the mortgage), or on sale of the property.

Why can’t I get an equity loan on a property that’s not new build?

Help to Buy: equity loan is focused on new build properties only. Buyers wanting to purchase an existing property may be interested in the Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee.

Questions on Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee

What is the Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee?

Subject to the final scheme design, the Government will make available £12bn of guarantees to lenders which will be sufficient to support £130 billion of high loan to value mortgages. The purpose of the scheme is to increase the availability of mortgages for buyers with small deposits.

How does the scheme work?

The Government will provide lenders with the option to purchase a guarantee on the high loan-to-value portion of the mortgage. This guarantee will incentivise lenders to offer a greater number of mortgages to buyers with small deposits.

When will I be able to get a Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee?

Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee will be available from January 2014.

Will the Government be guaranteeing my mortgage payments for me?

No. Under Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee, the Government will provide guarantees to lenders on a proportion of the mortgage. If a borrower’s property is repossessed, the Government will cover a proportion of the losses suffered by lenders.

What type of property can I buy?

Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee will be available on all residential properties in the UK, up to a value of £600,000.

I have a deposit which is larger than 20% – will I still be able to get a Help to Buy: guarantee mortgage?

Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee will only be available to buyers with deposits between 5% and 20%. Mortgages are already widely available for those with a deposit of 20% or more.

Will I be able to get a Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee on a property that’s not new build?

Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee will be available on both new build homes and existing properties.

Who should I contact about getting a Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee?

The Government will provide further details on how to get a Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee later this year. Help to Buy: guarantee mortgages will not be available until January 2014.

Will lenders have to offer me a guaranteed mortgage?

No. Lenders may choose whether to use the guarantee or not.

What will the interest rate be on Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee?

Interest rates on products supported by Help to Buy: mortgage guarantee will be set by lenders. The Government will not be involved in setting the price, which is a commercial decision for individual lenders.

Tuesday, 16 April 2013

Correction of Stocks Not Over, Avoid Gold, Turning Cautious on Mining Sector

Gold was sold off badly in the last 2 days. I wrote two rather long emails to my colleagues today to comment on gold and mining stocks. In a gist, gold has been sold off as inflation in the west is not forthcoming. Investors are turning their attention to dividend stocks and high yield bonds.

For the mining sector, I looked at the inventory of copper. It's at a high that was seen in 2007 and 2011. Hence the chart for copper is negative for the next two to three months. Thus, revenue for mining companies is likely to be flat or down slightly. But profitability is so bad for these companies that EPS is falling too. Valuation wise, price to book is near 2008 levels.

Hang on to your horses. Lighten up on equities. Don't buy any more gold. Sell on strength.

Saturday, 13 April 2013

Over Supply Looming in Iskandar

My employer took a bus load of high networth clients to Iskandar today. I believe most of the properties shown to them will be off-plan condominiums. I believe the water front condos are already priced in. At over RM800 psf, I would not touch it. Worse still are condos with no special features. When I mention "special" I meant being near MRT stations and having water frontage. Nothing else will do.

If you think that landed properties are of better value, I can tell you that it has also been priced in. Most gated bungalows are selling for RM 400 - 600 psf. That's just about right.

Most of these properties have no resale value. The developers have so much land that they will keep selling and selling. Property owners will also fail to find good tenants. This is a classic case of a property bubble. Uncontrolled release of land will cause property prices to eventually fall.

80% of the capital appreciation is already over. If you wish to buy now, you are reaching the tail end of the bull run.